工程地质学报 2005, 13(2) 252-256 DOI:     ISSN:  CN

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本文关键词相关文章
混沌时间序列
边坡
预测
局域法
本文作者相关文章
PubMed
混沌时间序列预测的局域法在边坡变形分析中的应用
黄志全1, 樊敬亮2, 王思敬2
1. 华北水利水电学院岩土工程系,郑州450008;
2. 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,北京100029
摘要

边坡作为一个复杂系统,其本身的各种参量是不确定的和随机的,在其演化过程中,表现出复杂的非线性行为,发生一系列的混沌现象。本文运用现代混沌理论,对边坡变形的预测问题进行探索性研究,把混沌时间序列理论引入到边坡工程研究中,对该理论的建立及预测方法进行系统地讨论,为该领域的研究提供完整的技术方法。通过对新滩滑坡的研究结果表明,混沌时间序列方法对混沌序列的预测较线性时间序列具有较高的精度。

关键词 混沌时间序列   边坡   预测   局域法  
A PREDICTION METHOD OF CHAOTIC TIME SERIES FOR SLOPE DEFORMATION
HUANG Zhiquan1, FAN Jingliang2, WANG Sijing2
1. North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Zhengzhou 450008;
2. Institute of Geology &|Geophysics, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
Abstract:

The parameters of the slope system are uncertain and random due to slope complexity, therefore, a series of chaos can occur in the course of slope evolution. The chaotic time series method is developed based on the chaotic theory and adopted in predicting slope deformation. The development of the prediction model and its analysis are demonstrated using the case study of Xintan landslide. The results indicate that this prediction method can get a better prediction and analysis accuracy than conventional time series method.

Keywords: Chaotic time series   Slope   Prediction   Local method  
收稿日期 2004-04-21 修回日期 2004-06-24 网络版发布日期  
DOI:
基金项目:

河南省高校杰出科研人才创新工程项目(HAIPURT);河南省青年骨干教师计划资助

通讯作者:
作者简介: 黄志全(1970-),男,副教授,主要从事边坡工程方面的研究、教学与设计等工作.Email:huangzhiquan@ncwu.edu.cn
作者Email:

参考文献:


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