Abstract:
The Yalong River Basin is located in the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and is rich in hydropower resources. A total of 22 hydropower stations have been planned for the main stream. The geological structure, topography, and geomorphology in the basin are very complex, and the disturbance from large-scale engineering excavation and water storage is significant. It is of great significance to carry out investigation and evaluation of engineering disturbance disasters in the reservoir area for disaster prevention and mitigation of major projects. Taking the reservoir area of Lianghekou Hydropower Station, the largest installed hydropower station in the cascade hydropower stations in the middle reaches of the Yalong River, as the research object, remote sensing images of different periods in the reservoir area were used to carry out landslide interpretation, and the number-area and spatial evolution trends of landslides were analyzed. Four influencing factors, including elevation, slope, aspect, and distance from river, were selected to evaluate the susceptibility of slopes in the reservoir area using the information-logistic regression model, and the results were verified. The research shows that: Excavation and impoundment in hydropower projects will induce certain disasters. Compared with excavation, impoundment has a greater impact on landslides, and the number and scale of landslides developed under impoundment are large. Landslides are mainly distributed at elevations of 2500~3000 m, slopes of 30°~45°, NE, S, and SW aspects, and within 300 m from the river. With the change of time, the number of landslides increases at elevations of 2500~3000 m and in S and SW slope directions. Comparative analysis of the information model and the information-logistic regression model susceptibility results led to the final selection of the information-logistic regression model for susceptibility evaluation. The area of extremely high and high susceptibility zones is about 324 km
2, accounting for 11.2% of the total area of the study area, mainly distributed on both sides of the river and below 3500 m elevation. The susceptibility evaluation verification showed an AUC value of 0.975, indicating high accuracy. The research results of this paper can provide reference for the operation, unbuilt, and under-construction hydropower stations in the middle reaches of the Yalong River Basin.