雅砻江两河口库区工程扰动灾害时空分布规律与易发性研究

    SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION AND SUSCEPTIBILITY OF RESERVOIR-INDUCED LANDSLIDES IN LIANGHEKOU HYDROPOWER STATION OF YALONG RIVER

    • 摘要: 雅砻江流域地处青藏高原东缘,水能资源丰富,干流河段共规划了22级水电站。流域内地质构造、地形地貌十分复杂,大规模工程开挖、蓄水扰动显著,开展库区工程扰动灾害的调查评价对重大工程防灾减灾有着重要的意义。以雅砻江中游梯级电站中装机规模最大的水电站——两河口水电站库区为研究对象,利用库区不同时期的遥感影像开展滑坡解译,分析滑坡数量-面积与空间演化趋势。选取高程、坡度、坡向和距河流距离等4个影响因子,采用信息量-逻辑回归模型对库区边坡进行易发性评价并验证结果。研究表明:(1) 水电工程中开挖和蓄水会诱发一定的灾害,相对于开挖,蓄水对滑坡影响较大,蓄水下发育滑坡数量多且规模大;(2) 滑坡主要分布在高程2500~3000 m、坡度30°~45°、NE、S、SW坡向、距河流距离300 m范围内;(3) 随着时间变化滑坡数量在高程2500~3000 m、S、SW坡向占比递增;(4) 对比分析信息量模型和信息量-逻辑回归模型易发性结果,最终选取信息量-逻辑回归模型进行易发性评价。极高易发区和高易发区面积约为324 km2,占研究区总面积的11.2%,主要分布在河流两岸、高程3500 m以下范围内。易发性评价验证AUC值0.975,精确度较高。本文研究结果能够为雅砻江流域中游已建水电站运营、未建及在建水电站建设提供借鉴。

       

      Abstract: The Yalong River Basin is located in the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and is rich in hydropower resources. A total of 22 hydropower stations have been planned for the main stream. The geological structure, topography, and geomorphology in the basin are very complex, and the disturbance from large-scale engineering excavation and water storage is significant. It is of great significance to carry out investigation and evaluation of engineering disturbance disasters in the reservoir area for disaster prevention and mitigation of major projects. Taking the reservoir area of Lianghekou Hydropower Station, the largest installed hydropower station in the cascade hydropower stations in the middle reaches of the Yalong River, as the research object, remote sensing images of different periods in the reservoir area were used to carry out landslide interpretation, and the number-area and spatial evolution trends of landslides were analyzed. Four influencing factors, including elevation, slope, aspect, and distance from river, were selected to evaluate the susceptibility of slopes in the reservoir area using the information-logistic regression model, and the results were verified. The research shows that: Excavation and impoundment in hydropower projects will induce certain disasters. Compared with excavation, impoundment has a greater impact on landslides, and the number and scale of landslides developed under impoundment are large. Landslides are mainly distributed at elevations of 2500~3000 m, slopes of 30°~45°, NE, S, and SW aspects, and within 300 m from the river. With the change of time, the number of landslides increases at elevations of 2500~3000 m and in S and SW slope directions. Comparative analysis of the information model and the information-logistic regression model susceptibility results led to the final selection of the information-logistic regression model for susceptibility evaluation. The area of extremely high and high susceptibility zones is about 324 km2, accounting for 11.2% of the total area of the study area, mainly distributed on both sides of the river and below 3500 m elevation. The susceptibility evaluation verification showed an AUC value of 0.975, indicating high accuracy. The research results of this paper can provide reference for the operation, unbuilt, and under-construction hydropower stations in the middle reaches of the Yalong River Basin.

       

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