基于机器学习的宁波淤泥质黏土参数取值优化模型

    OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR PARAMETER VALUE OF NINGBO SILT CLAY BASED ON MACHINE LEARNING

    • 摘要: 准确确定岩土参数标准值是岩土工程可靠性分析与设计的重要前提,在实际工程中,抗剪强度参数的标准值一般是根据场地多个样本的试验结果通过经典统计学方法进行估计的,在此过程中会产生诸多误差,影响着所确定标准值的精度。依据宁波轨道交通大量勘察数据,以对施工影响最大的软土地层单元之一、呈流塑状态的全新统海积淤泥质黏土为研究对象,共收集352组数据,对该层淤泥质黏土参数进行筛选处理并对剔除后数据进行统计分析,提出一种基于机器学习理论的样本抗剪强度参数确定方法,此时模型的预测性能在预测黏聚力时R2达0.664,在预测内摩擦角时R2达0.818;结合贝叶斯理论推导岩土抗剪强度参数概率特征的最大后验估计量,以此对抗剪强度参数标准值确定方法进行优化。最后以区域内一个工程的现场数据进行计算,根据本文方法得到相应的抗剪强度参数的标准值。

       

      Abstract: Accurately determining the standard values of soil and rock parameters is a crucial prerequisite for reliability analysis and design in geotechnical engineering. In practical engineering,the standard value of shear strength parameters is typically estimated using classical statistical methods based on experimental results from multiple site samples. However,this process can introduce errors that affect the accuracy of the determined standard values. Based on extensive investigation data from the Ningbo Railway Transit project,the study focuses on Holocene marine silt clay in the fluid-plastic state,one of the soft soil layers that has the greatest impact on construction. A total of 352 sets of investigation data from the Ningbo rail transit project were collected and processed to select the silt clay parameters. After eliminating certain data,statistical analysis was performed,and a machine learning-based method for determining sample shear strength parameters was proposed. The model's predictive performance achieved R2=0.664 for cohesion and R2=0.818 for the internal friction angle. The method combines Bayesian theory with the maximum posterior estimation of probability characteristics to optimize the determination process. The standard values of soil and rock shear strength parameters were then determined by applying this method to field data from a regional project. The resulting values are based on a clear and objective analysis of the data.

       

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