基于最大信息系数法的卧沙溪滑坡变形相关性分析及预警模型研究

    RESEARCH ON CORRELATION ANALYSIS AND EARLY WARNING MODEL FOR WOSHAXI LANDSLIDE DEFORMATION BASED ON MAXIMUM INFORMATION COEFFICIENT

    • 摘要: 本篇以三峡库区卧沙溪滑坡为研究对象,运用最大信息量法对滑坡变形影响因素相关性进行了定量分析。结果表明降雨是坡体加速变形的主要诱因,库水位变化仅起到加速滑坡变形的作用,而非既有研究认为的动水压力型滑坡。为提升滑坡预警和预测的准确度,采用了最大信息系数法(MIC)与改进的切线角法,对近8年来滑坡次级滑体发生的4次阶跃变形进行了分析,确定了引发这些阶跃变形的降雨阈值和位移速率阈值。基于这些阈值,建立了一个更加完善的新型预警模型。研究结果不仅有助于提升对卧沙溪滑坡的监测水平,也为类似地质灾害的监测预警提供了有价值的参考。

       

      Abstract: The study focuses on the Woshaxi landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, utilizing the maximum information coefficient (MIC) method to quantitatively analyze the factors influencing landslide deformation. The results indicate that rainfall is the primary trigger for accelerated slope deformation, while changes in reservoir water levels primarily contribute to acceleration rather than causing hydrodynamic pressure-induced landslides, as previously suggested. To improve the accuracy of landslide warning and prediction, the MIC method and an enhanced tangent angle method were employed to analyze four instances of step deformation in the secondary landslide mass over the past eight years. Rainfall and displacement rate thresholds associated with these step deformations were identified, enabling the development of a more robust early warning model. These findings not only improve monitoring capabilities for the Woshaxi landslide but also provide valuable insights for early warning systems for similar landslides.

       

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