采动覆岩导水裂缝带的模式识别及预测方法研究

    STUDY ON PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PREDICTION METHOD OF WATER-CONDUCTING FRACTURE ZONE IN MINING OVERBURDEN ROCK

    • 摘要: 导水裂缝带高度作为煤矿隐蔽致灾因素,是判断顶板水害程度的重要指标。针对采动覆岩导水裂缝带高度的精准预测问题,收集全国范围内煤矿的50组导水裂缝带高度实测数据,选取煤层开采厚度、硬岩岩性比例系数、工作面斜长和煤层开采深度等关键影响因素,建立了导水裂缝带高度的模糊聚类分析方法,通过计算聚类分析的隶属度,以阈值0.94作为标准,将选取煤矿的导水裂缝带高度划分为22个类别,并结合神经网络算法,对三家煤矿的导水裂缝带高度实测数据进行训练并得出预测值。研究结果表明,三家煤矿导水裂缝带高度的预测值与实测值之间相对误差仅为4.1% ~6.6%,其精度远高于多参数拟合回归公式和“规范”推荐计算方法所得出的导高值,说明基于模糊聚类分析和BP神经网络相组合的预测模型,在导水裂缝带高度的预测方面具有极高的准确性与适用性,可为煤炭安全开采和工作面顶板水害防治提供理论依据。

       

      Abstract: The height of the water-conducting fracture zone, as a hidden disaster-causing factor in coal mines, is an important indicator for assessing the degree of roof water hazard. To address the issue of accurately predicting the height of the water-conducting fracture zone in mining overburden rock, 50 sets of measured data on the height of water-conducting fracture zones from coal mines across the country were collected. Key influencing factors such as mining thickness, hard rock ratio coefficient, working face length, and mining depth were selected. A fuzzy clustering analysis method for the height of the water-conducting fracture zone was established. By calculating the membership degree of the clustering analysis, a threshold λ of 0.94 was set as the standard, and the heights of the water-conducting fracture zones in the selected coal mines were classified into 22 categories. Combined with a neural network algorithm, the measured data of the water-conducting fracture zone heights from three coal mines were trained, and predicted values were obtained. The research results showed that the relative errors between the predicted and measured values of the water-conducting fracture zone heights for the three coal mines ranged from 4.1% to 6.6%. This accuracy is significantly higher than that obtained from multi-parameter fitting regression formulas and the recommended calculation methods in the "specifications." This demonstrates that the prediction model based on the combination of fuzzy clustering analysis and BP neural network has high accuracy and applicability in predicting the height of the water-conducting fracture zone, providing a theoretical basis for safe coal mining and the prevention and control of roof water hazards in working faces.

       

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