基于SBAS-InSAR与LSTM技术的高寒矿区排土场边坡形变监测研究

    DEFORMATION MONITORING OF DUMP SLOPES IN A HIGH-ALTITUDE AND COLD-REGION MINING AREA BASED ON SBAS-INSAR AND LSTM

    • 摘要: 针对传统监测技术难以对高寒冻融环境条件下矿区排土场边坡开展连续性、整体性形变监测,以及难以实现精准预测排土场变形趋势,本文以青海木里煤田江仓矿区2号井为研究区,基于Sentinel-1 A影像数据,联合SBAS-InSAR与长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)的方法,获取青海木里煤田江仓矿区2号井2019~2022年间2处排土场边坡形变结果,开展排土场边坡形变特征和降雨因素对边坡形变趋势的影响研究,并利用排土场边坡时序形变结果进行LSTM预测模型的构建。研究结果表明,青海木里煤田江仓矿区2号井南、北2处排土场边坡年平均形变速率为-62~21 mm·a-1,最大累积沉降量分别为255 mm、214.5 mm;对比日降雨量值表明,降雨后排土场边坡形变表现出呈相对加速沉降的变化趋势;在LSTM模型的预测样本中最大误差为2.42 mm,决定系数(R2)均大于0.9,最大均方根误差(RMSE)、均方误差(MAE)分别为1.14 mm、0.97 mm,表明使用SBAS-InSAR技术与构建LSTM模型在高寒矿区排土场边坡形变监测及预测方面具有可靠性和可行性,可为高寒矿区排土场边坡及类似工程边坡稳定性评价及病害防治提供科学指导。

       

      Abstract: This paper addresses the challenges posed by conventional monitoring techniques in achieving continuous and comprehensive deformation monitoring of dump slopes under high-altitude permafrost conditions, as well as the difficulty in accurately predicting deformation trends. Focusing on Pit No. 2 in Jiangcang mining area, Muli Coalfield in Qinghai Province, this paper integrates SBAS-InSAR and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks using Sentinel-1 A imagery to obtain deformation results for the northern and southern dump slopes of Pit No. 2 in Jiangcang mining area, Muli Coalfield from 2019 to 2022. The paper investigates the deformation characteristics of these dump slopes, the impact of precipitation on deformation trends, and develops an LSTM-based prediction model using time-series deformation data. The results show that the annual average deformation rates of the northern and southern dump slopes of Pit No. 2 in the Jiangcang mining area of the Muli Coalfield in Qinghai Province range from-62 mm·a-1 to 21 mm·a-1, with maximum cumulative settlements of 255 mm and 214.5 mm, respectively. A comparative analysis with daily rainfall data reveals that precipitation accelerates the deformation process, with the dump slopes exhibiting an accelerated settlement trend following rainfall events. The LSTM model predictions demonstrate a maximum error of 2.42 mm, with coefficients of determination (R2) exceeding 0.9. Additionally, the model achieves a maximum root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.14 mm and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.97 mm, indicating the reliability and feasibility of using SBAS-InSAR technology combined with the LSTM model for deformation monitoring and prediction in high-altitude mining areas. This integrated approach provides valuable insights for the stability assessment and disaster prevention of dump slopes in permafrost mining regions and similar engineering projects.

       

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