软土城市地下空间灾害网络演化模型构建与分析

    MODEL CONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS OF URBAN UNDERGROUND SPACE DISASTER CHAIN NETWORKS IN SOFT SOIL CITIES

    • 摘要: 软土城市地下空间在高强度开发与利用过程中,受软弱地层、封闭环境和功能高密度分布的共同影响,灾害风险显著增加,一旦触发,灾害往往呈现链式诱发与级联扩散,形成耦合性强、路径复杂的灾害链网络。为提升灾害识别与防控能力,本文融合复杂网络理论与图卷积神经网络(GCN)方法,构建软土城市地下空间(UUS)灾害链网络演化模型,并开展关键节点与路径的系统识别与鲁棒性评估。研究基于206例UUS灾害案例,利用复杂网络理论构建了包含115个节点与190条有向边的多灾种耦合灾害链网络,提取并量化了节点中心性与边结构特征;在此基础上,建立三层GCN模型实现节点重要性智能识别,结果表明GCN方法在关键节点识别方面优于传统方法;同时提出边脆弱度指标识别高风险路径。研究发现,节点攻击对网络性能的破坏显著强于边攻击,由软土与地下水耦合作用诱发的涌水、突水、地面塌陷、基坑坍塌等节点,普遍处于传播主干与交汇核心位置,其失效后将导致多路径同步中断与连通性崩解,构成灾害链网络的主控环节。基于节点与路径识别结果,本文提出“关键识别-路径干预-传播控制”协同防控框架,为软土城市地下空间灾害的风险评估、传播识别与精准干预提供理论支撑与技术路径。

       

      Abstract: In highly urbanized soft-soil regions, underground spaces face substantially elevated disaster risks due to the combined effects of weak geological strata, confined environments, and high-density functional layouts. Once initiated, such disasters tend to propagate through chain reactions and cascading failures, forming complex, coupled disaster-chain networks. To improve disaster identification and prevention capabilities, this study integrates complex network theory with a graph convolutional network(GCN)approach to construct an evolution model of disaster-chain networks in urban underground spaces(UUS)in soft-soil areas. The model systematically identifies critical nodes and key propagation paths and evaluates network robustness. Based on 206 UUS disaster cases, a multi-hazard coupled disaster-chain network comprising 115 nodes and 190 directed edges was established. Structural features and centrality metrics of nodes and edges were extracted to characterize the network topology. A three-layer GCN model was developed to intelligently identify critical nodes, outperforming traditional centrality-based methods in accuracy. An edge vulnerability index was also proposed to identify high-risk propagation paths and assess network robustness under simulated failure scenarios. The results indicate that node-based attacks cause significantly greater damage to network connectivity and efficiency than edge-based attacks. Nodes associated with the coupled action of soft soil and groundwater—such as water inrush, pipe bursts, ground collapse, and foundation pit collapse—typically occupy central transmission paths or act as network hubs. Their failure leads to multi-path disconnection and network fragmentation, highlighting their role as dominant control points in the disaster-chain network. Building on the identification of key nodes and paths, this study proposes an integrated framework of "critical node identification-path intervention-propagation control," offering a theoretical basis and technical pathway for risk assessment, propagation analysis, and targeted disaster mitigation in soft-soil urban underground spaces.

       

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