非显性滑坡形成条件、识别特征与广域稳定性快速评价

    FORMATION CONDITIONS, IDENTIFICATION CHARACTERISTICS AND RAPID ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL-SCALE STABILITY OF LATENT LANDSLIDES

    • 摘要: 我国是世界上地质灾害最为频发、灾害损失最为严重的国家之一,经多轮地质灾害详细调查和隐患排查,发现近30万处地质灾害隐患点,但近年发生的灾难性地质灾害事件约80%都不在已发现的隐患点范围内。究其原因,目前利用“三查”体系只能发现规模相对较大、具有明显变形破坏迹象的灾害隐患,而对于规模较小、灾害发生前迹象不明显或孕育时间短、突发性很强的非显性滑坡则很难提前发现,若仅对已发现的地质灾害隐患点进行“严防死守”并不能完全避免杜绝因灾人员伤亡,未来需以风险斜坡为单元,从“隐患点+风险区”(点面)双控等新的防灾减灾思路和技术方法对此类非显性滑坡进行早期识别和监测预警。本文从东南丘陵和黄土丘陵典型的非显性滑坡特征入手,对其形成条件和降雨触发条件进行归纳总结,在此基础上,利用精细化降雨预报技术对非显性滑坡进行时空预测,结合精细化三维地质模型建立广域斜坡稳定性快速评价模型,通过“前端+云端“平台架构设计将非显性滑坡智能识别模型、降雨预报模型和稳定性评价模型等集成化软件平台Earth Survey,实现非显性滑坡在广域斜坡勘测中的多源信息融合与灾害的动态评估,该研究思路和研发平台可适用于我国东、中、西部因雨诱发地质灾害中高易发区,亦可为我国非显性滑坡灾害的识别与评估提供理论和技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: China frequently experiences geological disasters,resulting in substantial losses. Through multiple rounds of geological hazard surveys and inspections,nearly 300 000 potential hazard sites have been identified. However,approximately 80% of catastrophic geological disasters in recent years occurred outside these identified sites. Detection systems based on the"Space-Sky-Surface"(3S)framework can monitor large-scale disasters with obvious deformation and destruction signatures but are less effective at identifying small,latent landslides that exhibit subtle precursory signs,short gestation periods,or high abruptness. Future disaster prevention and mitigation efforts should adopt a"dual-control" strategy that integrates both known hazard points and risk-prone areas(point-surface integration),with the risk slope serving as the basic analytical unit. This study examines the typical characteristics of latent landslides in southeastern hilly regions and the Loess Plateau,summarizing their formation conditions and rainfall-triggering factors. Using refined rainfall forecasting techniques,spatiotemporal prediction of such landslides is conducted. A rapid regional-scale slope stability evaluation model is then established based on a high-resolution three-dimensional geological model. Through a"front-end-cloud" platform architecture,an intelligent latent-landslide identification model,a rainfall forecasting model,and a stability evaluation model are integrated into a unified software platform—Earth Survey. This enables multi-source information fusion and dynamic disaster assessment for latent landslides across large-scale slope surveys. The proposed research framework and the Earth Survey platform are applicable to rainfall-induced geological disaster-prone regions across eastern,central,and western China,providing theoretical foundations and technical support for the identification and assessment of latent landslides.

       

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