基于Meta理念的煤矿突水溃砂灾害多因素致灾机制系统分析

    SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF MULTI-FACTOR DISASTER MECHANISMS OF WATER-SAND MIXTURE INRUSH IN COAL MINES BASED ON THE CONCEPT OF META-ANALYSIS

    • 摘要: 突水溃砂是煤矿开采过程中一种典型的复合型地质灾害,具有突发性强、破坏力大等特点,严重威胁矿井安全。为系统厘清其规律与机理,本文基于Meta分析理念,对1980~2024年间218篇中英文文献及相关的典型案例进行了系统梳理与综合分析。结果表明:(1)突水溃砂灾害的时空分布与我国煤炭开发“由东向西、由浅入深”的布局紧密相关。灾害在空间上表现出聚集性与分带性,形成了西北浅埋松散层型、西北浅埋风积沙型、西北深埋弱胶结型及华北厚松散层-薄基岩型四大典型区域模式。(2)在3大类共27项致灾因素中,水压、裂隙形态、松散层厚度及顶板管理等为主控因子,并阐明了以水压驱动、裂隙扩展、砂体运移为主的多因素耦合致灾链机制;结合多因素敏感性分析,确定了突水溃砂灾害启动和运移阶段的主控因素。(3)基于传统“物源-通道-空间-驱动”四要素框架提出的“物源分布结构”概念,可以用以描述水源与砂源的空间构型与势能关系,而空间构型与势能差又是决定灾害是否发生的关键。(4)突水溃砂通道的演化具有“孕育-触发-扩展”的非线性时序特征,可划分为渐进孕育型与触发型两类。本文为理解突水溃砂灾害机理提供了一个基于文献综述的整体视角和概念框架。

       

      Abstract: Water-sand mixture inrush(WSMI)represents a typical complex geological disaster in coal mining, characterized by high abruptness and destructive potential, posing serious threats to mine safety. To systematically clarify its patterns and mechanisms, this study adopted a Meta-analysis approach, reviewing and synthesizing 218 articles and typical cases published from 1980 to 2024. The results indicate that: (1)WSMI disasters exhibit spatial aggregation and zoning. Their temporal distribution closely follows the national coal development trajectory, which has progressed" from east to west and from shallow to deep,"forming four major regional patterns: the shallow-buried loose layer type in Northwest China, the shallow-buried aeolian sand type in Northwest China, the deep-buried weakly cemented bedrock type in Northwest China, and the thick unconsolidated layer-thin bedrock type in North China. (2)A total of 27 disaster-inducing factors across three categories were identified. Hydrostatic pressure, fracture morphology, thickness of the loose layer, and roof management were identified as dominant controlling factors. A multi-factor coupled disaster-chain mechanism centered on hydrostatic pressure triggering, fracture propagation, and sand transport was elucidated. Combined with multi-factor sensitivity analysis, WSMI occurrence is jointly controlled by multi-factor coupling and transient shifts in dominant factors. (3)Based on the traditional"source-pathway-space-triggering" framework, the concept of "source distribution structure" is proposed. This describes the spatial configuration and potential energy relationship between water and sand sources, where spatial arrangement and potential difference determine whether a disaster occurs. (4)The evolution of WSMI pathways follows a nonlinear sequence of"incubation-triggering-expansion,"which can be categorized as gradual-incubation type or sudden-triggering type. This study provides an integrated review perspective and a conceptual disaster framework for understanding WSMI disaster mechanisms.

       

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