不同评价单元的区域滑坡预警对比研究

    COMPARATIVE STUDY ON REGIONAL LANDSLIDE EARLY WARNING WITH DIFFERENT EVALUATION UNITS

    • 摘要: 区域滑坡预警在我国地质灾害防灾减灾中发挥了重要作用,近年来,极端降雨引发群发灾害风险逐步增加,精细化预警指导撤离避险的新需求逐步凸显。在以往的机器学习预警模型中,通常以计算便利的网格单元和反映地形特征的斜坡单元为评价单元,但两种评价单元在机器学习预警模型中的性能差异及实际应用效果缺乏系统对比。本文以四川省青川县为研究区,采用同一算法(随机森林算法)、同一训练样本集(9 a数据),分别基于网格单元和斜坡单元构建区域滑坡预警模型,从滑坡影响因子量化分析、预警模型效能评估和实例校验3个方面进行系统对比分析。分析结果显示,斜坡单元在滑坡关键影响因子响应、预警模型判别能力以及预警结果精细度等方面均优于网格单元,能够更准确对区域滑坡的时空分布特征进行提前预测。基于斜坡单元的区域滑坡预警模型在精细化预警中具有明显优势,研究结果可为区域滑坡灾害风险防控提供参考,在后续精细化滑坡预警模型研究中推荐使用斜坡单元。

       

      Abstract: Regional landslide early warning systems play a crucial role in disaster prevention and mitigation in China. In recent years,the risk of clustered landslides triggered by extreme rainfall has increased,highlighting the need for refined early warning to support timely evacuation and risk reduction. Previous machine learning-based early warning models have commonly used grid cells or slope units as evaluation units for computational convenience. However,systematic comparisons of the performance and practical effectiveness of these two evaluation units in machine learning models remain limited. This study takes Qingchuan County,Sichuan Province,as the research area and employs the same algorithm(Random Forest)and training dataset(nine years of records)to construct regional landslide early warning models based on grid cells and slope units,respectively. A systematic comparison was conducted from three perspectives: quantification of landslide influencing factors,model performance evaluation,and case validation. The analysis indicates that slope units outperform grid cells in reflecting key landslide influencing factors,model discrimination capability,and the spatiotemporal resolution of warning results,enabling more accurate prediction of regional landslide distribution. Regional landslide early warning models based on slope units demonstrate clear advantages for refined warning applications,providing valuable insights for landslide risk prevention and mitigation,and supporting the adoption of slope units in future studies on refined landslide early warning.

       

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