地震滑坡危险性概念和基于力学模型的评估方法探讨

王涛; 吴树仁; 石菊松; 辛鹏

doi:10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2015.01.014

地震滑坡危险性概念和基于力学模型的评估方法探讨

doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2015.01.014

中国地质科学院地质力学研究所国土资源部新构造运动与地质灾害重点实验室北京 100081

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(41102165),国家十二五科技支撑计划项目课题(2011BAK12B09 2012BAK10B02)资助

详细信息

作者简介:
王涛(1982-),男,博士,副研究员,主要从事地震地质灾害调查与研究. Email: wangtao_ig@163.com

中图分类号: P642.22
计量
- 文章访问数: 3549
- HTML全文浏览量: 281
- PDF下载量: 660
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-02-21
- 修回日期: 2014-06-11
- 刊出日期: 2015-02-25

CONCEPTS AND MECHANICAL ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR SEISMIC LANDSLIDE HAZARD:A REVIEW

Institute of Geomechanics, CAGS; Key Laboratory of Neotectonics Movement & Geohazards, Ministry of Land and Mineral Resources, Beijing 100081

摘要

摘要: 在我国大陆地区运用基于力学模型的Newmark位移分析方法开展地震滑坡危险性定量评估,尚处在起步阶段.为了进一步明确地震滑坡危险性概念和改进推广基于力学模型的评估方法,首先阐明了狭义的地震滑坡危险性预测评估与震后反演评估的关系; 同时为了应对地震应急、震后重建及潜在地震条件下的不同评估需求,初步提出了广义的地震滑坡危险性评估框架.随后申述了基于Newmark位移分析的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的理论基础、方法分类及最新进展,并以汶川地震滑坡危险性快速评估为例,剖析了目前影响评估有效性的不确定性及空间数据质量等问题,指出了基于力学模型的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的改进方向.建议开展潜在地震及其诱发滑坡危险性的耦合评估,建立适用于我国大陆地区地震滑坡位移分析的经验模型,以便为国家层面的地震滑坡危险性区划服务.
- 地震滑坡 /
- 危险性 /
- 力学模型 /
- Newmark
Abstract: The Newmark displacement model is preliminarily used for quantitative seismic landslide hazard assessment in Chinese mainland. In order to distinguish concepts and promote the application of this mechanical model based assessment method, we firstly analyze the correlation of the narrow sense seismic landslide hazard forecast assessment and post-earthquake inversion assessment. In order to meet different landslide assessing requirements under earthquake emergency response, post-earthquake reconstruction and potential earthquake conditions, we preliminarily develop a generalized seismic landslide hazard assessment framework. Then, we review the theoretical foundation, basic assumptions, method classification and their applicability of seismic landslide hazard assessment method in association with Newmark model. Also, the latest progress of regional assessment method using simplified displacement is reviewed. Taking the rapid assessment for Wenchuan earthquake inducing landslide hazard as an example, we analyze uncertainties and spatial data problem which affect the effectiveness of assessment. We suggest the improvements to the mechanical model based seismic landslide hazard assessment. It should be noted that the coupled hazard assessment of potential earthquake and the inducing landslide needs to be carried out. Empirical seismic landslide displacement analyzing model applicable to Chinese mainland needs to be developed, so as to promote national seismic landslide hazard zoning.
- Seismic landslide /
- Hazard /
- Mechanical model /
- Newmark

HTML全文

参考文献(1)

AlHomoud A S, Tahtamoni W. 2000. Comparison between predictions using different simplified Newmarks' block-on-plane models and field values of earthquake induced displacements[J]. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 19 (2): 73～90.

Bray J. 2007. Simplified seismic slope displacement procedures, in earthquake geotechnical engineering[M]. Netherlands: Springer, 327～353.

Bray J, Rathje E. 1998. Earthquake-induced displacements of solidwaste landfills[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 124 (3): 242～253.

Bray J, Travasarou T. 2007. Simplified procedure for estimating earthquake-induced deviatoric slope displacements[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 133 (4): 381～392.

Chen X L, Ran H L, Wang M M. 2012. Hazards zonation for potential earthquake-induced landslide area [J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 55 (4): 1269～1277.

Corominas J, Westen C, Frattini P, et al. 2013. Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk[J]. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, DOI 10.1007/s10064～013～0538～8.

Del Gaudio V, Wasowski J. 2004. Time probabilistic evaluation of seismically induced landslide hazard in Irpinia(Southern Italy)[J]. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 24 (12): 915～928.

Dreyfus D, Rathje E M, Jibson R W. 2013. The influence of different simplified sliding block models and input parameters on regional predictions of seismic landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake[J]. Engineering Geology, 163 : 41～54.

Fell R, Corominas J, Bonnard C, et al. 2008. Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning[J]. Engineering Geology, 102 (3～4): 85～98.

Gaudio V D, Pierri P, Wasowski J. 2003. An approach to timeprobabilistic evaluation of seismically induced landslide hazard[J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 93 (2): 557～569.

Ge H, Chen Q G, Wang D W. 2013. the assessment and mapping of seismic landslide hazards: A case study of Yingxiu area, Sichuan province [J]. Geology in China, 40 (2): 644～652.

Godt J, Sener B, Verdin K, et al. 2008. Rapid assessment of earthquake-induced landsliding [R]. 392～395.

Guo H W, Wei S S, Chen J C. 1997. A review on probable maximum precipitation prediction at home and abroad[J]. Dai Zong Xue Kan, (4): 22～28.

Huang R Q, et al. 2009. Geohazard assessment of the Wenchuan Earthquake[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 944.

Huang R Q. 2011. After effect of geohazards induced by the Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 19 (2): 145～151.

Jibson R W, Harp E L, Michael J A. 2000. A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps[J]. Engineering Geology, 58 (3～4): 271～289.

Jibson R W, Rathje E M, Jibson M, et al. 2013. SLAMMER-seismic landslide movement modeled using earthquake records[R]. Reston, VA: Techniques and Methods, U. S. Geological Survey.

Jibson R W. 2011. Methods for assessing the stability of slopes during earthquakes—A retrospective[J]. Engineering Geology, 122 (1～2): 43～50.

Jibson R W. 1993. Predicting earthquake-induced landslide displacements using Newmark's sliding block analysis[J]. Transportation Research Record, 1411: 9～17.

Jibson R W. 2007. Regression models for estimating coseismic landslide displacement[J]. Engineering Geology, 91 (2～4): 209～218.

Keefer D K. 1984. Landslide caused by earthquake[J]. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 95 (4): 406～421.

Komatitsch D, Liu Q, Tromp J, et al. 2004. Simulations of ground motion in the Los Angeles Basin based upon the spectralelement method[J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 94 (1): 187～206.

Liu C Z. 2012. Anaysis on genetic model of Wenjiagou debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake area, Sichuan[J]. Geological Review, 58 (4): 709～716.

Liu H, Ling H I. 2012. Seismic responses of reinforced soil retaining walls and the strain softening of backfill soils[J]. International Journal of Geomechanics, 12 (4): 351～356.

Liu J W. 2011. The study on the method of seismic hazard assessment based on historical intensity observations[Doctorate Thesis][D]. Beijing: Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, 153.

Makdisi F I, Seed H B. 1978. Simplified procedure for estimating dam and embankment earthquake-induced deformations[J]. Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Division, 104 (7): 849～867.

Matasovic N, Kavazanjian Jr E. 1997. Newmark deformation analysis with degrading yield acceleration[A]//Geosynthetics '97[C]. California: Long Beach.

Meehan C L, Vahedifard F. 2013. Evaluation of simplified methods for predicting earthquake-induced slope displacements in earth dams and embankments[J]. Engineering Geology, 152 (1): 180～193.

Miles S B, Keefer D K. 2000. Evaluation of seismic slope performance models using a regional case study [J]. Environmental & Engineering Geoscience, 6 (1): 25～39.

Murphy W, Petley D N, Bommer J, et al. 2002. Uncertainty in ground motion estimates for the evaluation of slope stability during earthquakes[J]. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, 35 (1): 71～78.

Newmark N M. 1965. Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments[J]. Geotechnique, 15 (2): 139～160.

Peng W F, Wang C L, Chen S T, et al. 2009. Incorporating the effects of topographic amplification and sliding areas in the modeling of earthquake-induced landslide hazards, using the cumulative displacement method[J]. Computers & Geosciences, 35 (5): 946～966.

Pradel D E, Smith P M, Stewart J P, et al. 2005. Case history of landslide movement during the Northridge earthquake[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 131 (11): 1360～1369.

Qi X, Tang C, Tie Y B, et al. 2010. Hazard assessment of geohazards triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake using GIS technology—Taking Beichuan county of Sichuan province for example[J]. Journal of Chengdu University of Technology(Science & Technology Edition), 37 (2): 160～167.

Rajabi A M, Khamehchiyan M, Mahdavifar M R, et al. 2013. A time probabilistic approach to seismic landslide hazard estimates in Iran[J]. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 48 : 25～34.

Rathje E M, Bray J D. 2000. Nonlinear coupled seismic sliding analysis of earth structures[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 126 (11): 1002～1014.

Rathje E M, Saygili G. 2011. Estimating fully probabilistic seismic sliding displacements of slopes from a pseudoprobabilistic approach[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 137 (3): 208～217.

Rathje E M, Saygili G. 2009. Probabilistic assessment of earthquake～induced sliding displacements of natural slopes[J]. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 42 (1): 18～27.

Roberto R. 2000. Seismically induced landslide displacements: A predictive model[J]. Engineering Geology, 58 (3～4): 337～351.

Rodri'guez C E, Bommer J J, Chandler R J. 1999. Earthquake-induced landslides: 1980-1997[J]. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 18 (5): 325～346.

Saygili G, Rathje E M. 2008. Empirical predictive models for earthquakeinduced sliding displacements of slopes[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 134 (6): 790～803.

Seed H B. 1973. Stability of earth and rockfill dams during earthquakes[A]//Embankment-Dam Engineering[C]. New York: John Wiley and Sons,239～269.

Shi J S, Wang T, Xin P, et al. 2013. Detailed Geohazards investigation in Baoji, Shaanxi and comprehensive research report[R]. Beijing: Institute of Geomechanics, CAGS, 452.

Strenk P M, Wartman J. 2011. Uncertainty in seismic slope deformation model predictions[J]. Engineering Geology, 122 (1～2): 61～72.

Tang C, Li W L, Ding J, et al. 2011. Field investigation and research on giant debris flow on August 14, 2010 in Yingxiu town, epicenter of Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Earth Science(Journal of China University of Geosciences), 36 (1): 172～180.

Terzaghi K. 1950. Mechanism of landslides[A]//S Paige. Application of Geology to Engineering Practice(Berkey Volume)[C]. New York: Geological Society of America, 83～123.

Tian X F. 2009. Classification of weathered rock mass and seismic stability analysis for Jinyang Grand Buddha Slope in Taiyuan[Doctorate Thesis][D]. Beijing: China University of Geosciences(Beijing), 154.

Wang T, Wu S R, Shi J S, et al. 2013. Application and validation of seismic landslide displacement analysis based on newmark model: A case study in Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition), 87 (S): 393～397.

Wang T, Wu S R, Shi J S, et al. 2013. Case study on rapid assessment of regional seismic landslide hazard based on simplified Newmark displacement model: Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 21 (1): 18～26.

Wang T, Wu S R, Shi J S, et al. 2013. Primary design for seismic landslide hazard assessment technical framework[J]. Geological Review, 59 (S): 1150～1154.

Wang T. 2010. Study on seismic landslide hazard assessment in Wenchuan earthquake severely afflicted area[Doctorate Thesis][D]. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, 161.

Wartman J, Seed R, Bray J. 2005. Shaking table modeling of seismically induced deformations in slopes[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 131 (5): 610～622.

Wasowski J, Keefer D K, Lee C T. 2011. Toward the next generation of research on earthquake-induced landslides: Current issues and future challenges[J]. Engineering Geology, 122 (1～2): 1～8.

Wieczorek G F, Wilson R C, Harp E L. 1985. Map showing slope stability during earthquakes in San Mateo county, California[R]. U.S. Geological Survey Miscellaneous Investigations Series Map I 1257E. U. S. Geological Survey p. 1map: col. ;68×109cm. ,on sheet 105×136cm.

Wilson R C, Keefer D K. 1983. Dynamic analysis of a slope failure from the 6 August 1979 Coyote lake, California, earthquake[J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 73 (3): 863～877.

Wu S R, Shi J S, Wang T, et al. 2012. Landslide risk assessment theory and technology[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 338.

Wu S R, Wang T, Shi L, et al. 2010. Study on catastrophic landslide triggered by 2008 great Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan, China[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 18 (2): 145～159.

Xiao K Q. 2006. Study on deformation charicteristics and stability of bedding slope under earthquake[Doctorate Thesis][D]. Wuhan: Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, CAS, 122.

Xu C, Dai F C, Xu X W. 2010. Wenchuan earthquake～induced landslides: An overview[J]. Geological Review, 56 (6): 860～874.

Xu C. 2013. Actual landslides as most objective standard for validation of landslide hazard assessment result[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 21 (6): 908～911.

Xu C. 2012. Distribution law and risk assessment for Wenchuan earthquake triggered landslides[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 31 (2): 432～439.

Xu G X, Yao L K, Li C H, et al. 2012. Predictive models for permanent displacement of slopes based on recorded strong motion data of Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 34 (6): 1131～1136.

Xu Q, Pei X J, Huang R Q, et al. 2009. Large scale landslides induced by the Wenchuan Earthquake[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 473.

Yin Y P, Pan G T, Liu Y P, et al. 2009. Great Wenchuan Earthquake seismogeology and landslide harzard. Beijing: Geological publishing House, 142.

Zhao H, Song E X. 2012. A method for predicting co～seismic displacements of slopes for landslide hazard zonation[J]. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 40 : 62～77.

Zhuang J Q, Cui P, Ge Y G, et al. 2010. Risk assessment of collapses and landslides caused by 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake—A case study of Dujiangyan—Wenchuan highway[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 29 (S2): 3735～3742.

陈晓利, 冉洪流, 王明明. 2012. 潜在地震滑坡危险区区划方法[J]. 地球物理学报, 55 (4): 1269～1277.

葛华, 陈启国, 王德伟. 2013. 地震滑坡危险性评价及编图——以映秀震中区为例[J]. 中国地质, 40 (2): 644～652.

郭化文, 魏甡生, 陈建昌. 1997. 国内外求算可能最大降雨量研究综述[J]. 岱宗学刊, (4): 22～28.

黄润秋, 等. 2009. 汶川地震地质灾害研究[M]. 北京: 科学出版社.944.

黄润秋. 2011. 汶川地震地质灾害后效应分析[J]. 工程地质学报, 19 (2): 145～151.

刘传正. 2012. 汶川地震区文家沟泥石流成因模式分析[J]. 地质论评, 58 (4): 709～716.

刘静伟. 2011. 基于历史地震烈度资料的地震危险性评估方法研究[博士学位论文][D]. 北京: 中国地震局地质研究所, 153.

齐信, 唐川, 铁永波,等. 2010. 基于GIS技术的汶川地震诱发地质灾害危险性评价——以四川省北川县为例[J]. 成都理工大学学报(自然科学版), 37 (2): 160～167.

石菊松, 王涛, 辛鹏,等. 2013. 陕西宝鸡地区地质灾害详细调查及综合研究成果报告[R]. 北京: 中国地质科学院地质力学研究所, 452.

唐川, 李为乐, 丁军,等. 2011. 汶川震区映秀镇”8.14″特大泥石流灾害调查[J]. 地球科学-中国地质大学学报, 36 (1): 172～180.

田小甫. 2009. 太原晋阳大佛边坡岩体风化分级及地震稳定性评价研究[D]. 北京: 中国地质大学(北京), 154.

王涛, 吴树仁, 石菊松,等. 2013. 地震滑坡危险性评估技术框架设计初探[J]. 地质论评, 59 (增): 1150～1154.

王涛, 吴树仁, 石菊松,等. 2013. 基于简化Newmark位移模型的区域地震滑坡危险性快速评估——以汶川M_S8.0级地震为例[J]. 工程地质学报, 21 (1): 18～26.

王涛. 2010. 汶川地震重灾区地质灾害危险性评估研究[博士学位论文][D]. 北京:中国地质科学院, 161.

吴树仁, 石菊松, 王涛,等. 2012. 滑坡风险评估理论与技术[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 338.

吴树仁, 王涛, 石玲,等. 2010. 2008汶川大地震极端滑坡事件初步研究[J]. 工程地质学报, 18 (2): 145～159.

肖克强. 2006. 地震荷载作用下顺层岩体边坡变形特征及稳定性研究[博士学位论文][D]. 武汉: 中国科学院研究生院(岩土力学研究所), 122.

徐光兴, 姚令侃, 李朝红,等. 2012. 基于汶川地震强震动记录的边坡永久位移预测模型[J]. 岩土工程学报, 34 (6): 1131～1136.

许冲, 戴福初, 徐锡伟. 2010. 汶川地震滑坡灾害研究综述[J]. 地质论评, 56 (6): 860～874.

许冲. 2013. 实际滑坡是滑坡危险性评价结果合理性检验最好的标准[J]. 工程地质学报, 21 (6): 908～911.

许冲. 2012. 汶川地震滑坡分布规律与危险性评价[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 31 (2): 432～439.

许强, 裴向军, 黄润秋,等. 2009. 汶川地震大型滑坡研究[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 473.

殷跃平, 潘桂堂, 刘宇平,等. 2009. 汶川地震地质与滑坡灾害概论[M]. 北京: 地质出版社.142.

庄建琦, 崔鹏, 葛永刚,等. 2010. “5·12”汶川地震崩塌滑坡危险性评价——以都汶公路沿线为例[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 29 (增2): 3735～3742.

施引文献

资源附件(0)

访问统计