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RISK ASSESSMENT OF PROPERTY LOSS CAUSED BY UNSTABLE SLOPES UNDER DIFFERENT RAINFALL CONDITIONS—A CASE STUDY OF XINGLONG TOWN OF ZHENBA COUNTY
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摘要: 山区城镇化的加速发展使得切坡、削坡现象普遍发生，导致城镇周边隐患斜坡的数量增加、规模增加，诱发隐患斜坡转变为滑坡的临界降雨强度降低，城镇财产损失风险大大提升。如何准确地对不同强度降雨条件下城镇财产损失的风险进行评价是亟待解决的前沿问题，本文以镇巴县兴隆镇为例，通过收集研究区多年降雨数据集，利用皮尔逊三型水文模型得到研究区不同重现期下的降雨强度，在此基础上结合野外斜坡调查资料、岩土体实验数据，采用蒙特-卡洛法计算得到城镇周边不稳定斜坡在不同降雨条件下的破坏概率，并对斜坡影响范围内的承灾体的易损性和财产价值进行评价，最终根据财产风险计算公式得到各斜坡在不同降雨工况下的财产损失风险值。风险计算结果表明：城镇内受不稳定斜坡威胁的房屋共245栋，占总房屋数量的30.4%，城镇房屋总价值约为5260.4万元，在天然、10年、20年、50年一遇降雨条件下年损失财产价值分别为22.8万元、69.73万元、122.5万元、150.5万元，其中超过55%的财产损失均是由1-2、2-6、3-5、4-3这4个边坡造成，并且在降雨强度递增时，这4个边坡对财产损失风险的贡献在逐步降低，占比分别为：88.33%、62.9%、58.64%以及57.54%，可见只要对这4个斜坡进行必要的防治即可大幅地缩减财产损失。Abstract: Shallow landslide is a common geological hazard in Qinba mountain area. In recent years, the amount of unstable slopes is increasing because of the urbanization. The unstable slope is one of the most serious threatens to the urbanization, because it is very easy changed into shallow landslide with rainfall. It is an urgent to predict the property loss risk caused by unstable slope under different rainfall condition. This paper takes the unstable slopes of Xinglong town as research objective, and assesses the property loss of the buildings affected by the unstable slopes. Firstly, we collect the rainfall data of Xinglong town and fitting these data using Pearson Ⅲ curve to predict the rainfall intensity at different recurrence periods, and then combine rainfall infiltration model and Mote-Carlo method to calculate the probability of unstable slopes changing into landslides under different rainfall conditions. After that, we calculate the vulnerability and the value of objects affected by unstable slopes by means of vulnerability model combined with survey and exploration data. At the end, we use the risk assessment formula proposed by Fell in 2005 to calculate the property loss risk under different rainfall conditions. The results show the following three findings. (1) 245 buildings are affected by unstable slopes, account for 30.4% of the total buildings in Xinglong town. (2) The risk value of the buildings affected by unstable slopes under the rainfall conditions of no rainfall, 65.57mm ·d-1, 72.88mm ·d-1, 85.91mm ·d-1 are 0.228, 0.697, 1.225 and 1.505 million yuan, respectively. (3) More than 55% of the loss is caused by the unstable slopes 1-2, 2-6, 3-5 and 4-3, and the loss caused by these four unstable slopes under the rainfall conditions of no rainfall is 65.57mm ·d-1, 72.88mm ·d-1, 85.91mm ·d-1 over the total loss are 88.33%, 62.9%, 58.64% and 57.54%, respectively.
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Key words:
- Rainfall intensity /
- Failure probability /
- Vulnerability /
- Risk
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图 4 斜坡2-6在不同降雨条件下的计算模型
a.天然状态计算模型；b. 20年一遇降雨计算模型
Figure 4. The model of slope 2-6 under different rainfall conditions
图 5 斜坡2-6在不同降雨条件下的安全系数分布情况
a.天然状态安全系数分布；b. 20年一遇降雨安全系数分布
Figure 5. The safety factor distribution of slope 2-6 under different rainfall conditions
图 6 斜坡在不同降雨工况下的破坏概率
a.天然状态；b. 10年一遇；c. 20年一遇；d. 50年一遇
Figure 6. Failure probability of slopes under different rainfall conditions
图 9 房屋/斜坡不同降雨条件下(连续五日)财产损失风险值分布图
a.天然状态；b. 10年一遇；c. 20年一遇；d. 50年一遇
Figure 9. Distribution of property loss risk under different rainfall conditions(5 consecutive days) for housing/slope
图 10 各斜坡在不同降雨条件下(连续五日)财产损失风险值分布图
a.天然状态；b. 10年一遇；c. 20年一遇；d. 50年一遇
Figure 10. Property loss risk distribution of each slope under different rainfall conditions(5 consecutive days)
表 1 5日累计降雨量极值分布的参数估计
Table 1. Parameters of accumulative rainfall peak distribution curve under 5 days continuous rainfall
求参方法 x Cv Cs 最小二乘适线法 41.77 0.4252 0.87 
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表 2 不同降雨历时和重现期下的降雨强度(单位：mm ·d-1)
Table 2. Rainfall intensity under different rainfall durations and recurrence periods
降雨历时/d 重现期/a 10 20 50 5 65.57 72.88 85.91
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表 3 兴隆镇周边斜坡岩土体物理力学参数表
Table 3. Physical-mechanical parameters of soil on slope around Xinglong town
岩土
类型类别 黏聚力C/kPa 内摩擦角φ/(°) 天然
状态饱和
状态天然
状态饱和
状态碎石土 均值μ 18.0 15.0 17.1 15.1 方差σ 1.8 3.4 0.67 4.65 强风化
粉砂岩均值μ 15 12.3 25.0 23.6 方差σ 0.81 2.05 1.46 2.14
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表 4 滑坡冲击力强度指标的取值
Table 4. Landslide impact strength index
滑坡冲击力/建筑物水平方向极限承载力 Ipre < 0.1 0.05 0.1~0.2 0.2 0.2~0.4 0.4 0.4~0.7 0.7 0.7~1.0 0.9 >1.0 1.0
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表 5 建筑物的水平极限抵抗力
Table 5. Horizontal resistance of buildings
建筑结构体 水平抗力/kPa 无门窗的砖瓦填充墙面 7.6~8.9 有门窗的砖瓦填充墙面 5.5 石块填充墙面(长度4 m，厚度40 cm) 6.8~9 石块填充墙面(长度4 m，厚度60 cm) 10~13 弱非抗震钢混结构(1~3层) 4.5~8 强非抗震钢混结构(4~7层) 5~9 弱抗震钢混结构(多层) 5~10 强抗震钢混结构(多层) 6~14
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表 6 运动滑体深度强度指标的取值
Table 6. Index of landslide mass depth
运动滑体深度/建筑物上部结构高度 If-dep < 0.2 0.1 0.2~0.4 0.3 0.4~0.6 0.5 0.6~0.8 0.7 0.8~1.0 0.9 >1.0 1.0
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表 7 建筑结构类型脆弱性指标取值
Table 7. The vulnerability index of building structure
建筑结构类型 脆弱性 Sstr 轻质简易结构 较强 0.90 土木结构 强 0.70 砖木结构 低 0.50 砖混结构 较低 0.30 钢结构 极低 0.10
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表 8 建筑物在不同维护状况下的脆弱性指标
Table 8. Vulnerability index of buildings under different maintenance conditions
维护状况 Smat 描述 非常好 0.00 无任何变形、开裂及材料老化 好 0.05 仅在建筑物墙体表面出现类似于发丝的细小裂纹 轻微变形 0.25 墙体出现极细小裂缝，宽度小于0.1 mm 中等变形 0.50 地基出现较小的沉降 严重变形 0.75 墙体倾斜；地板翘起；墙体出现张裂缝 极严重变形 1.00 结构极度歪斜；部分墙体倒塌；基础失去支撑；管线中断
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表 9 建筑物使用年限脆弱性指标取值
Table 9. Vulnerability index of building service life
使用年限与设计寿命比值 Sser ≤0.1 0.05 0.1~0.4 0.10 0.4~0.6 0.30 0.6~0.8 0.50 0.8~1.0 0.70 1.0~1.2 0.80 ＞1.2 1.00
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表 10 房屋价值评估表
Table 10. Building valuation
用途 结构类型 修建时间 每间价值/万元 商用 砖混 2000年以后 4 2000年以前 3 砖木 2000年以后 3 2000年以前 2.5 民用 活动板房 0.2 土木 2000年以后 0.5 2000年以前 0.3 砖木 2000年以后 1.5 2000年以前 1 砖混 2000年以后 2.3 2000年以前 1.8
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