亓星, 朱星, 许强, 赵宽耀, 霍冬冬, 王浩, 修德皓. 2020: 基于斋藤模型的滑坡临滑时间预报方法改进及应用. 工程地质学报, 28(4): 832-839. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019-298
    引用本文: 亓星, 朱星, 许强, 赵宽耀, 霍冬冬, 王浩, 修德皓. 2020: 基于斋藤模型的滑坡临滑时间预报方法改进及应用. 工程地质学报, 28(4): 832-839. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019-298
    QI Xing, ZHU Xing, XU Qiang, ZHAO Kuanyao, HUO Dongdong, WANG Hao, XIU Dehao. 2020: IMPROVEMENT AND APPLICATION OF LANDSLIDE PROXIMITY TIME PREDICTION METHOD BASED ON SAITO MODEL. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 28(4): 832-839. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019-298
    Citation: QI Xing, ZHU Xing, XU Qiang, ZHAO Kuanyao, HUO Dongdong, WANG Hao, XIU Dehao. 2020: IMPROVEMENT AND APPLICATION OF LANDSLIDE PROXIMITY TIME PREDICTION METHOD BASED ON SAITO MODEL. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 28(4): 832-839. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2019-298

    基于斋藤模型的滑坡临滑时间预报方法改进及应用

    IMPROVEMENT AND APPLICATION OF LANDSLIDE PROXIMITY TIME PREDICTION METHOD BASED ON SAITO MODEL

    • 摘要: 滑坡临滑时间预报可根据滑坡变形时间曲线来建立,但现有临滑时间预报模型并未统一计算区间,因此相同模型在不同计算区间得出时间预报值可能存在较大差异。以贵州省龙井村滑坡为例,通过分析滑坡精细化变形数据,以斋藤时间预报模型为基础,确定出进行临滑时间预报的变形计算区间为切线角70°~75°之间,并根据变形曲线在临滑时具有明显上翘特征,导致滑坡发生时间提前的特点,通过分析切线角斜率与计算区间斜率的比例关系,引入修正系数0.5对滑坡时间预报值进行修正。通过近年来甘肃黑方台多次黄土滑坡的精细化变形数据进行检验验证,结果表明,改进的滑坡变形临滑时间预报方法具有良好的准确性和一定的普适性,为滑坡时间预报提供了较为准确的新方法。

       

      Abstract: The prediction of landslide imminent sliding time can be established according to the time curve of landslide deformation. But the existing prediction models of landslide imminent sliding time have not unified the calculation interval. So the time prediction value obtained by the same model in different calculation intervals may be quite different. Taking Longjingcun Landslide in Guizhou Province as an example, this paper analyzes the fine deformation data of the landslide with the Saito time prediction model. The calculation range of the deformation for the prediction of the time of imminent sliding is determined to be between 70 and 75 degrees of tangent angle. According to the deformation curve, the landslide has obvious upward warping characteristics when it is imminent sliding, which leads to the occurrence time of the landslide ahead of time. By analyzing the ratio between the tangential gradient and the segment gradient of the curve, a correction coefficient of 0.5 is introduced to correct the time prediction value of landslide. The results show that the improved prediction method of landslide deformation imminent sliding time has good accuracy and applicability.

       

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