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UNDERSTANDING THE LANDSLIDE MONITORING AND EARLY WARN-ING:CONSIDERATION TO PRACTICAL ISSUES
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摘要: 近年来，随着科技的迅猛发展，监测预警已成为主动防范地质灾害的重要手段，国家每年投入大量的人力物力财力开展滑坡预警工作。但调查发现，不少相关从业人员(主要是专业技术人员和管理人员)对滑坡监测预警方面的一些基本问题还存在误区甚至错误的认识，严重影响其防灾减灾效果。结合近年来在滑坡监测预警实践中的研究成果和经验教训，本文重点就滑坡监测和预警方面的一些问题提出了自己的认识。其主要观点包括：并不是监测点和监测手段越多就越有效，滑坡监测应突出针对性、实用性和目的性，监测方案设计及具体监测内容都应为滑坡预警提供依据。不少滑坡的发生具有一定的突发性，应采用具自动变频功能的监测设备才能获取滑坡全过程尤其是临滑阶段完整的数据，为科学预警提供保障。监测仅是手段，预警才是目的，不仅要重视滑坡的监测工作，更应高度重视预警工作，且应同时加强区域性气象预警和单体滑坡预警工作。目前常用的阈值预警方法误报、漏报率较高，应将预警的重心转移到对历史数据的统计分析和基于变形、地下水位、雨量等关键指标的预警模型和判据研究，据此提高滑坡预警的准确性和实用性。Abstract: Monitoring and early warning have become the important means of preventing geohazards with rapid development in technology. A great deal of financial, manpower and physical resources have been adopted to work on landslide monitoring and early warning. However, some technical and managerial personnel have misunderstandings in landslide monitoring and early warning, which seriously affects the geohazards prevention and mitigation effects. Based on research results and lessons learned in practice over recent years, this paper discusses on some basic issues in terms of landslide monitoring and early warning. Main points include:(1)It is not that more monitoring locations and methods are better. The landslide monitoring plan should highlight pertinence, practicability and purpose, and its design and content mainly provide the basis for landslide early warning; (2)The occurrence for many landslides is sudden, and monitoring equipment with self-adaptive data acquisition function should be used to get entire deformation data, especially the accelerated creep stage, to guarantee scientific alert. (3)Monitoring is just a means to an end, while early warning is the end goal. Much attention should be paid on landslide early warning, like regional-scale meteorological early warning and slope-scale landslide early warning; (4)The commonly used early warning models with thresholds have a high rate of false and missing alarms. The study on statistical analysis of historical data, early warning models based on key parameters of deformation, underground water level and precipitation, become a high priority to improve the accuracy and practicality of landslide early warning.
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图 1 滑坡变形破坏过程与监测预警途径
Figure 1. Landslide deformation process and monitoring and warning approach
图 2 2017年四川茂县新磨村滑坡的InSAR监测结果(Intrieri et al., 2018; Carlà et al., 2019)
Figure 2. InSAR monitoring results of Xinmo landslide, Mao county, Sichuan in 2017(Intrieri et al., 2018; Carlà et al., 2019)
图 3 贵州兴义市龙井村滑坡发生前GNSS与裂缝计监测结果的对比分析
Figure 3. Monitoring results of GNSS and crack gauge of Longjing landslide, Xingyi, Guizhou
图 4 利用地基SAR监测新磨村滑坡西侧变形体及监测点分布图
Figure 4. Monitoring locations on the west unstable rock mass of Xinmo landslide by GBSAR
图 5 新磨村滑坡西侧变形体代表性监测点的变形-时间曲线图
Figure 5. Displacement monitoring curve of the west unstable rock mass in Xinmo landslide by GBSAR
图 6 2017年以来通过专业监测获得的滑坡位移-时间曲线
CJ、DC、JJ均为甘肃黑方台黄土滑坡监测成果，CJ为陈家区段滑坡，DC为党川区段滑坡，JJ为焦家区段滑坡；XY为贵州兴义顺层岩质滑坡，YMD为贵州杨莫洞岩质滑坡(崩塌)，其后为监测点编号，LF*为裂缝计及编号；括号内的时间为滑坡实际发生时间
Figure 6. Monitored displacement and time curve since 2017
图 7 基于变形观测的滑坡4级综合预警
Figure 7. Outline of the four-level comprehensive warning for landslide based on the deformation observation
图 8 2019年贵州兴义市龙井村滑坡监测点分布图与裂缝计监测结果
a.监测点分布图，b.裂缝计监测结果；C.裂缝计，GP. GNSS，R.雨量计，T.倾斜仪
Figure 8. Monitoring devices distribution and monitoring results of crack gauge
图 9 贵州某滑坡的变形监测成果
a.贵州某滑坡的航拍影像与监测点分布；b.滑坡区代表性监测点的位移-时间曲线
Figure 9. Monitoring results of a landslide in Guizhou
图 10 2019年2月28日甘肃黑方台某黄土滑坡变形监测与预警成果
a.滑坡发生前的变形速率和累计位移-时间曲线切线角动态变化图；b.滑坡临滑阶段的变形监测数据；c. “地质灾害实时监测预警系统”自动发送的滑坡红色预警信息
Figure 10. Monitoring results and warning message of loess landslide in Heifangtai terrace of Gansu occurred on February 28, 2019
表 1 滑坡的主要监测手段及预警指标
Table 1. Main monitoring methods and alert parameters
监测
内容监测指标 监测手段 预警指标 驱动力 雨量、水位、应力
(水压力、土压力、
支挡结构应力、滑坡推力)等雨量计、水位计、孔压计、
土压力计、钢筋应力计等临界雨量、水位、
孔压、应力等外在
变形位移速率、累计
位移、加速度、倾
角等全站仪、裂缝计、
GNSS、InSAR、钻孔倾斜仪、
多点位移计、测斜仪、光纤等切线角、加速度、
裂缝分期配套特性等内部
破裂微震、次声、
声波等地震仪、次声探测仪、
声波仪等弹性波、次声波频谱
特性、能量特性临滑
前兆变形、地下水位、
微震和次声波等
各种前兆信息变形、水位、
内部破裂观测等手段前兆异常信息，如位移急剧
增加，持续不断的
小崩小落
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