累积变形曲线类型与滑坡预测预报

刘传正

刘传正. 2021. 累积变形曲线类型与滑坡预测预报[J]. 工程地质学报, 29(1): 86-95. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-525
引用本文: 刘传正. 2021. 累积变形曲线类型与滑坡预测预报[J]. 工程地质学报, 29(1): 86-95. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-525
Liu Chuanzheng. 2021. Three types of displacement-time curves and early warning of landslides[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 29(1): 86-95. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-525
Citation: Liu Chuanzheng. 2021. Three types of displacement-time curves and early warning of landslides[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 29(1): 86-95. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-525

累积变形曲线类型与滑坡预测预报

doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-525
基金项目: 

国家重点研发计划项目课题“基于地质气象大数据的区域地质灾害高精度预警模型研发” 2018YFC1505503

详细信息
    作者简介:

    刘传正(1961-),男,博士,研究员,主要从事工程地质与地质灾害防治研究. E-mail: liucz@cigem.cn

  • 中图分类号: P642.22

THREE TYPES OF DISPLACEMENT-TIME CURVES AND EARLY WARNING OF LANDSLIDES

Funds: 

National Plan in Key Development Subjects 2018YFC1505503

  • 摘要: 基于斋藤曲线的滑坡时间预报是滑坡一定会发生的情况,而实际滑坡的孕育发展具有显然的多样性和阶段性。为了走出斋藤曲线的束缚或局限,根据诸多滑坡累积变形-时间曲线的归纳分析,作者把滑坡累积变形划分为缓变趋稳型、阶跃演进型和失稳突发型3种。缓变、阶跃和突发型滑坡变形动态可以顺次转化,且前两者可以相互转化,但一般情况下突发型不可以反向转化,并分别举例进行了说明。滑坡处于开放的地质环境系统中,滑坡孕育发展与其边界条件、成分结构、初始状态和激发因素等作用及其时空变化密切相关。滑坡的物理本质起源于斜坡岩土体内部应力作用的失衡,最主要的动力来源是重力作用失衡。突发型滑坡意味着滑坡必然发生,可认为滑坡进入“自动态”。阶跃型滑坡对外界因素作用敏感,可认为滑坡处于应激反应的“他动态”。趋稳型滑坡除非遭遇超常的外界激发因素作用,滑坡处于向整体稳定发展但局部存在变形调整的“微动态”。由于滑坡内外环境处于持续变化过程中,追求滑坡的“精准”预报既无可能也无必要,问题的关键是提高服务防灾减灾的有效性。
  • 图  1  滑坡变形发展的3阶段(Saito,1969)

    Figure  1.  Three stages of deformation and failure in landslide(Saito, 1969)

    图  2  岩土体蠕变曲线簇(许强等,2020)

    Figure  2.  Sets of creep curves of rock and soiland the mechanic conditions(from Xu et al., 2020)

    图  3  滑坡累积变形的3种演变类型

    Figure  3.  Three types of displacement-time curves in landslide evolution

    图  4  卧龙寺新滑坡发展过程曲线(陈建胜等,2013)

    Figure  4.  Displacement-time curve of new landslide in Wolongsi(from Chen et al., 2013)

    图  5  长江三峡水库水位变动与树坪滑坡累积位移及降雨量关系

    Figure  5.  Regional rainfalls and cumulative displacements of Shuping landslide, water fluctuation of Three Gorges reservoir in Changjiang River

    图  6  新滩滑坡A3点累积位移、月位移监测曲线

    Figure  6.  Cumulative displacement curve and velocity in a month at A3 monitoring point in Xintan landslide

    图  7  链子崖T9~T11缝间危岩体1994~2004年间位移变化曲线

    Figure  7.  Cumulative displacement curves from 1994 to 2004 in T9~T11 rockmass in Lianziya

    图  8  抚顺西露天矿南帮滑坡E400(J16)、E1200(J07)剖面监测点累积位移-时间曲线

    Figure  8.  Cumulative displacement curves in E400(J16) and E1200(J07)monitoring lines at Nanbang landslide of West open pit in Fushun

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-09-23
  • 修回日期:  2020-10-29
  • 刊出日期:  2021-02-01

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