刘传正. 2021. 累积变形曲线类型与滑坡预测预报[J]. 工程地质学报, 29(1): 86-95. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-525.
    引用本文: 刘传正. 2021. 累积变形曲线类型与滑坡预测预报[J]. 工程地质学报, 29(1): 86-95. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-525.
    Liu Chuanzheng. 2021. Three types of displacement-time curves and early warning of landslides[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 29(1): 86-95. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-525.
    Citation: Liu Chuanzheng. 2021. Three types of displacement-time curves and early warning of landslides[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 29(1): 86-95. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-525.

    累积变形曲线类型与滑坡预测预报

    THREE TYPES OF DISPLACEMENT-TIME CURVES AND EARLY WARNING OF LANDSLIDES

    • 摘要: 基于斋藤曲线的滑坡时间预报是滑坡一定会发生的情况,而实际滑坡的孕育发展具有显然的多样性和阶段性。为了走出斋藤曲线的束缚或局限,根据诸多滑坡累积变形-时间曲线的归纳分析,作者把滑坡累积变形划分为缓变趋稳型、阶跃演进型和失稳突发型3种。缓变、阶跃和突发型滑坡变形动态可以顺次转化,且前两者可以相互转化,但一般情况下突发型不可以反向转化,并分别举例进行了说明。滑坡处于开放的地质环境系统中,滑坡孕育发展与其边界条件、成分结构、初始状态和激发因素等作用及其时空变化密切相关。滑坡的物理本质起源于斜坡岩土体内部应力作用的失衡,最主要的动力来源是重力作用失衡。突发型滑坡意味着滑坡必然发生,可认为滑坡进入“自动态”。阶跃型滑坡对外界因素作用敏感,可认为滑坡处于应激反应的“他动态”。趋稳型滑坡除非遭遇超常的外界激发因素作用,滑坡处于向整体稳定发展但局部存在变形调整的“微动态”。由于滑坡内外环境处于持续变化过程中,追求滑坡的“精准”预报既无可能也无必要,问题的关键是提高服务防灾减灾的有效性。

       

      Abstract: The displacement-time curves published by Saito in 1960s imply landslide happening definitely in future, but actually, the gestation and development of landslide are of diversity and periodicity. For to walk out ties or limit from Saito's curves, the author puts forward that displacement-time curves of landsides can be classified as three types. They consist of change slowly to be stable, evolution in terraces and losing stability of slope. The stable type can transform to be terrace form in each other, and the latter transform to be failure type. In general, the type of losing stability can be not transform in reverse. Meanwhile, every type is interpreted with actual examples. Landslide occurs in the opening geological environmental systems. Landslide development is related intimately with its boundary conditions, constituents and structures, initial states and induced factors and their changes in time and space. Physical essence of landslide is out- of -balance of internal stress action in the slope which dynamic source is mainly from unbalance of gravity in slope. Losing stability of slope can be considered as it is into"automatic state" which means landslide would be happening inevitable. The type of evolution in terraces is susceptible with extraneous factor and the landslide is in the responding state or"passive state".The type to be stable landslide occurs only deformation adjustment in a local area which is in"weak dynamic state" unless it encounters extra-regular and extraneous factors. Because of the internal or external environments of landslides to be in the change endlessly, that scientists pursue"precise of early warning" of landslides would be impossible and unnecessary. The key problem is in the advance of service in disaster risk reduction.

       

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