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ANALYSIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF GEO-HAZARDS MONITORING IN THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA
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摘要: 本文结合三峡库区地质灾害监测预警建设历程、地质灾害监测分析现状及面临的问题，从地质灾害监测分析概念和内涵、发展趋势等方面进行了探讨，获得了以下认识：(1)探讨了地质灾害监测分析的内涵，提出了地质灾害监测分析的定义，即围绕着监测目的、监测内容和监测方法，对地质灾害监测数据及相关成果资料开展综合性分析的工作，针对预警预报、防控决策、施工安全、工程效果等不同监测目的，总结了地质灾害监测分析的主要内容；(2)面对多源、异构、实时、海量的地质灾害监测及相关数据，发展地质灾害智能化监测分析系统，实现地质灾害监测数据、分析技术方法、应用服务以及监测分析工作流程化等方面有效集成，是破解监测分析困境和问题的关键。Abstract: This paper is based on the geological hazard monitoring, the early warning work, the monitoring data analysis and the information system construction examples of geological hazards in Three Gorges Reservoir area. It focuses on the concept and connotation of geological hazard monitoring data analysis, and the development trend of geological hazard monitoring data analysis. The main findings are as follows. (1)The definition of geological hazard monitoring data analysis is put forward. It is the comprehensive analysis of geological hazard monitoring data and related achievements and data according to the purposes, contents and methods of geological hazard monitoring. (2)In the face of multi-source, heterogeneous, real-time, massive geological hazard monitoring data, the development of intelligent geological hazard monitoring data analysis system is the key to solve the problem. The system can integrate the geological hazards monitoring big data, the various analytical techniques, methods and application service systems as well as the workflow of monitoring data analysis.
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图 1 三峡库区白家包滑坡地表变形prophet时间序列预测结果
Figure 1. The prediction results of the prophet time series of the surface deformation of Baijiabao Landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area
图 2 树坪滑坡监测点累积位移-时间曲线
Figure 2. The cumulative displacement-time curve of the tree-ping landslide monitoring point
表 1 三峡库区大石板滑坡监测预警综合指标体系
Table 1. Comprehensive index system for monitoring and early warning of large slate landslides in Three Gorges Reservoir Area
一级指标 二级指标 四级预警指标 等速变形阶段 加速变形初期 加速变形中期 临滑阶段 变形监测 位移速率 v≤10 mm·d-1 10＜v≤50 mm·d-1 50＜v≤150 mm·d-1 v＞150 mm·d-1 切线角 αi≤45° 45° <αi≤80° 80° <αi≤85° αi＞85° 位移时间曲线为倾斜直线，切线角相对恒定 位移时间曲线弯曲向上抬升，切线角缓慢增大 位移时间曲线持续上弯增长，切线角持续增大 位移时间曲线快速增长，趋于直立，切线角骤然陡立 位移矢量 各监测点位移矢量方向不一致 各监测点位移矢量方向逐渐一致指向主滑方向，位移量值一般是后部大前部小、中部大、两侧小 不同部位监测点位移矢量方向基本统一，指向主滑方向，位移量值差别逐渐缩小 不同部位监测点位移矢量方向和量值均趋于一致 裂缝分期配套 后缘裂缝 断续延伸、初具雏形 基本连通、开始加大加深 已经连通、出现下错台坎 迅速拉张甚或闭合 侧缘裂缝 裂缝分布于中后部，并逐渐从向前缘扩展、延伸 两侧裂缝逐渐向坡体中前部扩展延伸 两侧裂缝基本贯通 裂缝完全贯通、擦痕明显 前缘剪出口 肉眼察觉不到明显变形 前缘开始隆起、鼓胀 前缘隆起部位出现纵向张裂缝和横向鼓胀裂缝 前缘隆起加剧，出现局部坍塌不断。临空面开始剪出 关键影响因子 降雨 日降雨量≤120 mm，一次降雨过程累积降雨量≤160 mm 120＜日降雨量≤160 mm，160 mm＜一次降雨过程累积降雨量≤200 mm 160＜日降雨量≤220 mm，200＜一次降雨过程累积降雨量≤320 mm 日降雨量＞220 mm·d-1，一次降雨过程累积降雨量＞320 mm 库水 库水升降速率≤1.2 m·d-1 1.2 m·d-1＜库水升降速率≤2 m·d-1 2 m·d-1＜库水升降速率≤4 m·d-1 库水升降速率＞4 m·d-1 
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表 2 三峡库区滑坡灾害变形特征及监测优化建议
Table 2. The deformation characteristics and monitoring optimization suggestions of landslide disaster in Three Gorges reservoir area
序号 变形程度 多年监测的年变形量 稳定性状态 监测优化建议 1 不变形或微变形 ≤20 mm 稳定-基本稳定 以群测群防替代专业监测：尽量减少监测点数量和监测频次；甚至可降为群测群防，适当加强极端条件下的地质巡查 2 缓慢变形 (20，50]mm 基本稳定 适当弱化专业监测，加强群测群防：可以降低监测频次，根据需要可适当减少监测点数量(对于综合立体监测点)；在可以分析出变形主导因素的条件下，重点进行对主导因素不利条件下的监测。加强极端条件下的地质巡查和群测群防监测 3 较明显变形 (50，100]mm 基本稳定-欠稳定 优化监测网络，强化群测群防：分析变形监测点是否布设合理、能否满足监测预警需求，优化专业监测网点布设和监测方案，重点监测诱发主导因素及变化，同时强化影响因素极端条件下的群测群防巡查 4 明显变形 ＞100 mm 欠稳定-不稳定 监测关键要素和重点部位，加强监测分析与群测群防：优化专业监测网点布设和监测方案，分析变形监测点是否布设合理，重点捕捉主导因素变化和监测关键变形部位，必要时增加监测点甚至监测方法；强化监测数据分析与变形趋势预测工作，密切关注诱发因素的变化情况，加强宏观地质巡查
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表 3 人工监测和自动化监测的特征对比
Table 3. Comparison of characteristics between manual monitoring and automated monitoring
监测方式 人工监测阶段 自动化监测阶段 监测主要工作 以野外数据采集为主要工作量 以室内监测分析为主要工作量 监测分析方式 人工现场采集，室内分析 数据自动采集传输，系统后台分析 监测分析时效 监测分析工作明显滞后 监测数据可实时处理分析 监测分析方法 单体地质灾害监测数据分析 地质灾害大数据综合分析 监测分析工具 人工分析为主，借助通用软件 专业软件系统，实现分析技术方法集成 监测分析过程 碎片化，需不同软件 流程化，同一系统完成 监测分析结果 定性分析，经验判断为主 定量分析，推理科学化，结果精细化 分析的规范性 因监测单位技术人员组成而差异 监测分析工作规范化、统一化 监测人员组成 地质类专业+测绘类专业为主 地质类专业+信息类专业为主
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