闫成林, 郑德凤, 年廷凯, 等. 2021. 基于ANP的模糊贝叶斯网络模型及其在海岸带地质灾害风险评价中的应用[J].工程地质学报, 29(6): 1862-1868. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0715.
    引用本文: 闫成林, 郑德凤, 年廷凯, 等. 2021. 基于ANP的模糊贝叶斯网络模型及其在海岸带地质灾害风险评价中的应用[J].工程地质学报, 29(6): 1862-1868. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0715.
    Yan Chenglin, Zheng Defeng, Nian Tingkai, et al. 2021. Fuzzy Bayesian network model based on ANP and its application to coastal zone geohazard risk assessment[J].Journal of Engineering Geology, 29(6): 1862-1868. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0715.
    Citation: Yan Chenglin, Zheng Defeng, Nian Tingkai, et al. 2021. Fuzzy Bayesian network model based on ANP and its application to coastal zone geohazard risk assessment[J].Journal of Engineering Geology, 29(6): 1862-1868. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0715.

    基于ANP的模糊贝叶斯网络模型及其在海岸带地质灾害风险评价中的应用

    FUZZY BAYESIAN NETWORK MODEL BASED ON ANP AND ITS APPLICA ̄TION TO COASTAL ZONE GEOHAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT

    • 摘要: 海岸带位于海陆交互地带,其独特的地理、地质和环境条件导致其灾害地质现象发育,地质灾害易发性和危险性高。考虑到海岸带的重要经济和社会属性,开展海岸带的地质灾害风险评价显得极为重要。本文首先建立了基于模糊贝叶斯网络的地质灾害风险评价模型,结合网络层次分析法(ANP)确定模糊贝叶斯网络的条件概率,并简化了贝叶斯网络的结构图谱。在此基础上,以辽东半岛东部海岸带作为研究区,以崩塌、滑坡、地面塌陷、海岸侵蚀和海水入侵等5个主要地质灾害类型作为评价对象,开展了基于ANP-模糊贝叶斯网络模型的地质灾害易发性、危险性和风险性评价,并编制了综合地质灾害风险分布图;结果显示,区内高、较高风险区主要分布于研究区的西南部海岸带,面积为249km2,约占全区面积的9.1%。研究成果可为海岸带国土资源开发、经济建设规划、防灾减灾救灾等提供重要参考,对同类地区的海岸带地质灾害风险评价具有一定借鉴意义。

       

      Abstract: The coastal zone is located in the interaction area between land and sea. Its unique geographical, geological and environmental conditions lead to the frequent occurrence of geological disasters, which are high liability and risk. Considering the important economic and social attributes of the coastal zone, it is very important to carry out a geohazard risk assessment in the coastal zone. In this paper, the geohazard risk assessment model based on fuzzy Bayesian network is established and combined with the Analytic Network Process(ANP), to determine the conditional probability of fuzzy Bayesian network and simplify the Bayesian network structure. On this basis, the coastal zone in the eastern part of the Liaodong peninsula is employed as the study area. Five main types of geohazards including rockfall, landslide, ground subsidence, seawater intrusion and coastal erosion are selected as evaluation objects. Further, the susceptibility evaluation, hazard assessment and risk assessment of geohazards based on the fuzzy Bayesian network model coupling with ANP are carried out. The comprehensive geohazard risk assessment map is also achieved. The results show that the southwestern coastal zone of the study area is the highest or higher risk area. The zone has an area of 249km2 and 9.1% of the total area. The research results can provide an important reference for land and resources development, economic construction planning, disaster prevention and mitigation in the coastal zone, and also have certain reference significance for the risk assessment of geohazards in coastal zones of similar areas.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回