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FUZZY BAYESIAN NETWORK MODEL BASED ON ANP AND ITS APPLICA￣TION TO COASTAL ZONE GEOHAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT
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摘要: 海岸带位于海陆交互地带，其独特的地理、地质和环境条件导致其灾害地质现象发育，地质灾害易发性和危险性高。考虑到海岸带的重要经济和社会属性，开展海岸带的地质灾害风险评价显得极为重要。本文首先建立了基于模糊贝叶斯网络的地质灾害风险评价模型，结合网络层次分析法(ANP)确定模糊贝叶斯网络的条件概率，并简化了贝叶斯网络的结构图谱。在此基础上，以辽东半岛东部海岸带作为研究区，以崩塌、滑坡、地面塌陷、海岸侵蚀和海水入侵等5个主要地质灾害类型作为评价对象，开展了基于ANP-模糊贝叶斯网络模型的地质灾害易发性、危险性和风险性评价，并编制了综合地质灾害风险分布图；结果显示，区内高、较高风险区主要分布于研究区的西南部海岸带，面积为249km2，约占全区面积的9.1%。研究成果可为海岸带国土资源开发、经济建设规划、防灾减灾救灾等提供重要参考，对同类地区的海岸带地质灾害风险评价具有一定借鉴意义。
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关键词:
- 地质灾害 /
- 风险性评价 /
- 贝叶斯网络模型 /
- 海岸带 /
- 网络层次分析法(ANP)
Abstract: The coastal zone is located in the interaction area between land and sea. Its unique geographical, geological and environmental conditions lead to the frequent occurrence of geological disasters, which are high liability and risk. Considering the important economic and social attributes of the coastal zone, it is very important to carry out a geohazard risk assessment in the coastal zone. In this paper, the geohazard risk assessment model based on fuzzy Bayesian network is established and combined with the Analytic Network Process(ANP), to determine the conditional probability of fuzzy Bayesian network and simplify the Bayesian network structure. On this basis, the coastal zone in the eastern part of the Liaodong peninsula is employed as the study area. Five main types of geohazards including rockfall, landslide, ground subsidence, seawater intrusion and coastal erosion are selected as evaluation objects. Further, the susceptibility evaluation, hazard assessment and risk assessment of geohazards based on the fuzzy Bayesian network model coupling with ANP are carried out. The comprehensive geohazard risk assessment map is also achieved. The results show that the southwestern coastal zone of the study area is the highest or higher risk area. The zone has an area of 249km2 and 9.1% of the total area. The research results can provide an important reference for land and resources development, economic construction planning, disaster prevention and mitigation in the coastal zone, and also have certain reference significance for the risk assessment of geohazards in coastal zones of similar areas.-
Key words:
- Geohazard /
- Risk assessment /
- Bayesian network model /
- Coastal zone /
- Analytic network process(ANP)
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图 1 典型地质灾害易发性评价贝叶斯网络图(以崩塌为例)
Figure 1. Bayesian network diagram for susceptibility evaluation of typical geohazard
图 3 辽东海岸带崩塌地质灾害风险评价结果
a. 易发性评价结果；b. 危险性评价结果；c. 风险评价结果
Figure 3. Rockfall risk assessment results of eastern Liaoning coastal zone
图 4 辽东海岸带综合地质灾害风险评价分布图
a. 易发性分布图；b. 危险性分布图；c. 风险性分布图
Figure 4. Comprehensive geohazard risk assessment distribution map of eastern Liaoning coastal zone
表 1 崩塌地质灾害的危险性评价指标体系
Table 1. Geohazard assessment index system for rockfall
评价阶段 一级指标 二级指标 分级 地质灾害危险性评价 地质灾害易发性评价 地形地貌 坡度/(°) [0，45]; (45，75]; (75，90] 坡高/m [0，15]; (30，45]; (45，∞) 坡面曲率 (0.35，1]; (-0.35，0.35]; [-1，-0.35] 植被覆盖 (0.67，1]; (0.33，0.67]; [0，0.33] 坡面延伸长度/m [0，50]; (50，100]; (100，∞) 地形湿度因子 [0，10]; (10，15]; (15，∞] 地层岩性 岩土类型 土质-石英岩按硬度划分10个等级 岩层产状 按坡面产状与岩层产状的关系划分5个等级 风化程度 未风化；[微风化，中风化]；[强风化，全风化] 地震地质构造 节理裂隙发育/组 [0，1]; (1，3]; (3，∞) 距断层距离/m (500，∞); (200，500]; [0，200] 地震烈度/(°)及峰值加速度/g {6，7}，{0.05，0.1，0.15} 水文气象 降雨量/mm [0，400]; (400，600]; (600，∞) 距河流距离/m (500，∞); (200，500]; [0，200] 人类活动 距道路距离/m (500，∞); (200，500]; [0，200] 工程活动 [植被，裸露地面]；[居民用地，水库建设]；工程用地 危害程度 灾害规模/m3 [0，100]，(100，500]，(500，∞) 3日连续降雨量/mm [100，120]，(120，140]，(140，∞) 
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表 2 易损性评价指标体系
Table 2. Susceptibility evaluation index system
评价阶段 指标 分级 易损性性评价 人口密度/人/km2 [0，100]; (100，1000]，(1000，∞] 人均GDP/万元 [0，5]; (5，10]; (10，∞) 道路密度/m·km-2 [0，500]; (500，1000]，(1000，∞] 农田密度 [0，0.33]; (0.33，0.67]; (0.67，1]
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