基于加权多层卷积神经网络模型的冬奥会场区滑坡易发性评价

    EVALUATION OF LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY IN WINTER OLYMPICS AREA BASED ON WEIGHTED MULTILAYER CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORK MODEL

    • 摘要: 开展冬奥会地区滑坡易发性评价对于冬奥会场馆的运维风险管理具有重要意义。本文以冬奥会6个区县为研究对象,从地形地貌、地质构造、水文、人类活动和土壤植被5个方面构建冬奥会地区滑坡易发性评价指标体系,针对易发性因子权重需反复多次调整的繁琐过程、过多的池化层造成特征信息大量丢失等问题,提出影响因子权重自适应学习、扩张卷积层替换池化层的加权多层卷积神经网络(Weighted Multi-CNN,WM-CNN)用于滑坡易发性预测。运用加权多层卷积神经网络、一维卷积神经网络(CNN-1D)、卷积神经网络(CNN)、支持向量机(SVM)、随机森林模型(RF)分别构建该区域的滑坡易发性评价模型。对冬奥会地区进行滑坡易发性区划,并通过受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)。结果表明,WM-CNN模型预测效果最好,高于CNN-1D模型的0.835、CNN模型的0.877、SVM模型的0.819、RF模型的0.884。此外,研究区域极高易发区和高易发区集中在北京的延庆区,大多分布在道路两侧和山谷地带。国家跳台滑雪中心和延庆奥运村位于中等易发区,滑坡风险较大,因此需要重点监控。

       

      Abstract: Conducting landslide susceptibility assessments in the Winter Olympics region is important for the operation and maintenance risk management of the Winter Olympics venues. In view of the tedious process of repeatedly adjusting the susceptibility factor weights and the large loss of feature information due to too many pooling layers,a Weighted Multi-CNN(WM-CNN) is proposed for landslide susceptibility prediction with adaptive learning of the influence factor weights and the replacement of pooling layers by dilated convolutional layers. This paper takes six districts and counties of the Winter Olympics region as research objects,constructs the evaluation index system of landslide susceptibility in the Winter Olympics area from five aspects: topography and geomorphology,geological structure,hydrology,human activities,and soil vegetation,and uses the WM-CNN model to construct the evaluation model of landslide susceptibility. The ROC curve is used as the accuracy index,and the accuracy is compared with the one-dimensional convolutional neural network(CNN-1D),convolutional neural network(CNN),support vector machine(SVM),and random forest(RF)models. The results show that the WM-CNN model has the best prediction effect,which is higher than 0.835 for the CNN-1D model,0.877 for the CNN model,0.819 for the SVM model,and 0.884 for the RF model. In addition,the very high susceptibility and high susceptibility areas in the study area are concentrated in the Yanqing district of Beijing,mostly on both sides of the road and in the valley. The National Ski Jumping Center and Yanqing Olympic Village are located in the medium susceptibility area with higher landslide risk and thus need to be monitored in a focused manner.

       

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