基于模糊相似优先比的滑坡动态易发性评价

    LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT AND DYNAMIC UPDATING BASED ON THE FUZZY PRIORITY RATIO

    • 摘要: 针对现有滑坡易发性数据驱动模型可解释性弱和过度依赖滑坡数据的问题,本文将模糊相似优先比法(FPR)引入到滑坡易发性评价中,在短期内滑坡数据更新而环境因子不变的情况下,进行滑坡易发性评价的动态更新;并定义了易发性分区稳定性系数(w)以表征在易发性评价动态更新中评价结果的稳定性。以三峡库区万州区3个乡镇为研究区,将区内113个滑坡按8 ︰ 1 ︰ 1分为3组以模拟滑坡数据动态更新,选用信息量和人工神经网络(ANN)作为对比模型,分别采用3组滑坡数据进行滑坡易发性评价以研究滑坡易发性评价的动态更新。结果显示,在两次滑坡数据更新后,信息量和ANN评价结果中均有超过50%的斜坡单元易发性等级发生了变化,而FPR只有12%发生了变化。ANN和FPR的AUC值都有不同程度的提高。相较对比模型,FPR模型在易发性评价动态更新中表现最好(AUC=0.8859,w=1),该方法每一步都有严格的数学推导,可解释性强,且对样本数据的依赖性小,有效提高了滑坡空间预测精度。

       

      Abstract: To address the issues of limited interpretability and excessive dependence on landslide data in statistical-based landslide susceptibility models,the Fuzzy Preference Ratio(FPR)has been introduced for landslide susceptibility assessment. This approach involves the dynamic updating of landslide susceptibility assessments as landslide data is updated,while environmental factors remain constant over a short period. The stability coefficient of susceptibility(w) is established to quantify the variation in the susceptibility class of slope units during this dynamic update. Three typical towns in the Wanzhou District of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area were chosen as the study area. A total of 113 landslides in the area were categorized into three groups in an 8 ︰ 1 ︰ 1 ratio to simulate the dynamic updating of landslide data. The information value model and the artificial neural network(ANN)were selected for comparison,with landslide susceptibility assessments conducted using data from the three groups to study the dynamic updating of landslide susceptibility evaluation. The findings indicate that after two updates of landslide data,more than 50% of the slope unit susceptibility classifications changed in both the information value and ANN models,while only 12% of units changed in the FPR model. The Area Under the Curve(AUC)values for both the ANN and FPR models increased to varying extents. Compared with the comparative models,the FPR model exhibited superior performance(AUC=0.8859,w=1),and the method is characterized by strict mathematical derivation at each step,high interpretability,and reduced reliance on sample data. This provides an effective method to enhance the spatial accuracy of landslide predictions.

       

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