新疆天山伊阿铁路区域雪崩易发性与潜在释放区识别对比研究

舒晓燕 巫锡勇 文洪 凌斯祥 宋殿君

舒晓燕, 巫锡勇, 文洪, 等. 2023. 新疆天山伊阿铁路区域雪崩易发性与潜在释放区识别对比研究[J]. 工程地质学报, 31(4): 1200-1212. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0063
引用本文: 舒晓燕, 巫锡勇, 文洪, 等. 2023. 新疆天山伊阿铁路区域雪崩易发性与潜在释放区识别对比研究[J]. 工程地质学报, 31(4): 1200-1212. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0063
Shu Xiaoyan, Wu Xiyong, Wen Hong, et al. 2023. Comparison of snow avalanche susceptibility assessment and potential snow avalanche release areas identification along Yining-Aksu Railway,Xinjiang Tianshan Mountains[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 31(4): 1200-1212. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0063
Citation: Shu Xiaoyan, Wu Xiyong, Wen Hong, et al. 2023. Comparison of snow avalanche susceptibility assessment and potential snow avalanche release areas identification along Yining-Aksu Railway,Xinjiang Tianshan Mountains[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 31(4): 1200-1212. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0063

新疆天山伊阿铁路区域雪崩易发性与潜在释放区识别对比研究

doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0063
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金面上项目 41877215

四川省科技计划项目 2023YFS0364

详细信息
    作者简介:

    舒晓燕(1999-),女,硕士生,从事地质灾害及其防治研究. E-mail: shuxiaoy0305@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    巫锡勇(1963-),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事特殊岩土及地质灾害方面的科研与教学工作. E-mail: wuxiyong@126.com

  • 中图分类号: P626.63+6

COMPARISON OF SNOW AVALANCHE SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT AND POTENTIAL SNOW AVALANCHE RELEASE AREAS IDENTIFICATION ALONG YINING-AKSU RAILWAY, XINJIANG TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS

Funds: 

the National Natural Science Foundation of China 41877215

Sichuan Science and Technology Program 2023YFS0364

  • 摘要: 准确识别雪崩潜在释放区或雪崩高易发区域对高寒山区工程建设减灾防灾意义重大,特别是在雪崩监测数据缺失地区,能够提供重要的区域性灾害风险预估参考。本文以新疆天山地区伊阿铁路沿线区域为例,将铁路沿线154个雪崩范围形成区作为评价样本,开展基于机器学习算法的雪崩易发性评价,构建新疆天山地区伊阿铁路沿线雪崩易发性评价体系;开展基于数据叠加的雪崩潜在释放区(PRA)识别,绘制伊阿铁路沿线雪崩潜在释放区分布图,并对两个结果通过Kappa系数和AUC值进行检验,并对比讨论。结果显示,支持向量机(SVM)、多层感知器(MLP)、PRA的Kappa系数分别为0.806、0.774、0.600;AUC值分别为0.993、0.961、0.802,机器学习算法在雪崩易发性评价中的表现优于传统的基于数据叠加的雪崩潜在释放区识别算法;两种机器学习算法模型均精度高,其中支持向量机(SVM)算法表现最佳,优于多层感知器(MLP),评价结果比较符合野外雪崩发育实际情况,可为高寒山区重大工程建设的雪崩防灾减灾工作提供基础的科学依据;雪崩潜在释放区的自动识别算法评价能力较弱,评价结果基本符合野外雪崩发育实际情况,对于缺乏可用数据的高寒山区具有评价意义。
  • 图  1  研究区位置图

    Figure  1.  Location illustration of the study area

    图  2  雪崩野外调查照片及遥感解译特征

    a. 铁力买提达坂残留的雪崩堆积体;b. 六月残留的雪崩堆积体热融溶洞;c. 雪崩修剪形成的旗形树;d. 拉尔墩雪崩铲刮斜坡面浮土形成的堆积体

    Figure  2.  Snow avalanche accumulation fieldwork photos and remote sensing interpretation features:(a) Residual snow avalanche accumulation in Tielimaiti hilltop; (b) Residual snow avalanche accumulation's hot melting cave in June; (c) Snow avalanche pruning to form a flag tree; (d) Snow avalanche scraping the slope surface to form the accumulation in Laerdun

    图  3  研究区雪崩分布图

    a. 铁路沿线雪崩空间分布图;b. 巩乃斯、拉尔敦段雪崩频发区域;c. 拉尔敦典型雪崩流通沟槽、雪崩堆积体;d. 阿尔先段雪崩频发区域;e. 苏力间、铁力买提达坂段雪崩频发区域

    Figure  3.  Snow avalanches inventory illustration of the study area:(a) Snow avalanches spatial distribution illustration along the railway; (b) Frequent snow avalanches spatial distribution illustration in Gongnaisi and Laerdun; (c) Typical snow avalanche gully and accumulation in Laerdun; (d) Frequent snow avalanches spatial distribution illustration in Aerxian; (e) Frequent snow avalanches spatial distribution illustration in Sulijian and Tielimaiti hilltop

    图  4  雪崩评价因子选择过程

    Figure  4.  The selection process of snow avalanche conditioning factors

    图  5  铁路沿线雪崩易发性区划图

    Figure  5.  Snow avalanche susceptibility zoning illustration along the railway

    图  6  雪崩形成区参数值域分布图

    Figure  6.  Snow avalanche starting zone parameter value range distribution chart

    图  7  雪崩潜在释放区分布图

    a. 铁路沿线雪崩潜在释放区空间分布图;b. 巩乃斯、拉尔敦段雪崩频发区域潜在释放区空间分布图;c. 阿尔先段雪崩频发区域潜在释放区空间分布图;d. 苏力间、铁力买提达坂段雪崩频发区域潜在释放区空间分布图

    Figure  7.  Potential snow avalanche release areas distribution illustration:(a) PRA spatial distribution illustration along the railway; (b) Frequent PRA spatial distribution illustration in Gongnaisi and Laerdun; (c) Frequent PRA spatial distribution illustration in Aerxian; (d) Frequent PRA spatial distribution illustration in Sulijian and Tielimaiti hilltop

    图  8  ROC曲线

    Figure  8.  ROC curve

    图  9  铁路沿线雪崩易发性分区面积占比统计

    Figure  9.  Snow avalanche susceptibility zoning area statistics along the railway

    表  1  雪崩形成区参数指征

    Table  1.   Snow avalanche starting zone parameter indications

    参数 最小值 最大值 第一四分位数 第三四分位数 均值
    坡度 10.00 75.10 26.13 37.21 31.46
    粗糙度 1.00 3.89 1.11 1.26 1.20
    曲率 0.03 60.64 8.37 19.90 14.97
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  混淆矩阵及Kappa系数

    Table  2.   Confusion matrix and Kappa coefficients

    实际雪崩情况 预测结果 标记符号 PRA SVM MLP
    1 1 N1 100 28 29
    1 0 N2 8 3 5
    0 1 N3 54 3 2
    0 0 N4 146 28 26
    Pe 0.500 0.500 0.500
    Pa 0.800 0.903 0.887
    Ka 0.600 0.806 0.774
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2023-03-03
  • 修回日期:  2023-04-25
  • 刊出日期:  2023-08-25

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