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DISTRIBUTION AND HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF COLLAPSES AND LANDSLIDES IN SICHUAN-TIBET TRAFFIC CORRIDOR
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摘要: 川藏交通廊道雅安到林芝段位于青藏高原东南部，沿线地质条件复杂、河流切割强烈、地质环境脆弱、新构造运动活跃，具有山高谷深、坡体稳定性差等特点，是我国崩滑灾害最发育、危害最严重的地区之一。为了保障廊道内相关工程的顺利建设和后期安全运营，本文以线路两侧一级分水岭为界，通过遥感解译和野外调查，获得川藏交通廊道雅安—林芝段崩滑灾害共4509处，在此基础上，选取高程、坡度、坡向、工程地质岩组、断裂、水系、公路、地震动峰值加速度、降雨共9个因子分析了灾害的空间分布规律及发育特征，建立了频率比法与逻辑回归方法耦合模型，并运用到高原山区重大交通廊道崩滑灾害危险性评价中。研究结果表明：(1)廊道沿线各县区段的崩滑灾害面密度在空间上总体呈从西向东递减的趋势。(2)有利于灾害发生的条件分别是：高程1~4 km，坡度大于20°，S、SW和W坡向，较软弱、较坚硬和坚硬岩组，距断裂6.4 km范围内，距水系3.2 km范围内，距公路800 m范围内，地震动峰值加速度0.20g，年均降雨量大于1100 mm。(3)将研究区危险性等级划分为极低危险(18.64%)、低危险(26.18%)、中等危险(24.75%)、高危险(19.82%)、极高危险(10.61%)5级，其中：极高危险区与高危险区主要分布在断裂附近和坡度较陡的区域。(4)耦合模型的AUC值达到了0.737，优于单一的频率比模型的0.712，表明耦合模型的评价结果具有更高的精度。该研究可为川藏交通廊道雅安到林芝段相关工程的规划、建设和未来运营过程中的防灾减灾工作提供重要参考。Abstract: The Ya'an to Nyingchi section of the Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor is located in the southeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The project region is characterized by complex geological conditions,strong river cutting,fragile geological environment,active neotectonic movement,high mountains,deep valleys and poor slope stability. It is one of the areas with the most developed and serious hazards of collapses and landslides in China. In order to guarantee the smooth construction and safe operation of the related project in the corridor,this study takes the first order watershed on both sides of the line as the boundary,and obtains a total of 4509 collapses and landslides in the Ya'an-Nyingchi section of the Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor through remote sensing interpretation and field investigation. On this basis,a total of nine factors,including elevation,slope,aspect,engineering geological strata,fault,river,road,peak ground acceleration and rainfall are selected to analyze the spatial distribution law and development characteristics of disasters. Then it establishes a coupling model of frequency ratio method and logistic regression method to evaluate the hazard of collapses and landslides for the major traffic corridor project in plateau mountainous area. The study results show that: (1)The areal density of collapses and landslides in various counties along the corridor shows a spatial decreasing trend from west to east. (2)The conditions conducive to disasters occurrence include elevation of 1~4 km,slope gradient steeper than 20°,aspects of S,SW and W,rock groups of soft,hard and very hard,within 6.4 km of fault,within 3.2 km of river,within 800 m of road,peak ground acceleration of 0.20g and average annual rainfall more than 1100 mm. (3)The hazard of study area is divided into five grades: very low hazard(18.64%),low hazard(26.18%),medium hazard(24.75%),high hazard(19.82%),and very high hazard(10.61%),where the very high hazard and high hazard areas are mainly distributed near the faults and in the areas with steep slopes. (4)The AUC value of the coupling model reaches 0.737,which is better than that of the single frequency ratio model 0.712,indicating that the evaluation result of the coupling model has higher accuracy. This study can provide an important reference for disaster prevention and mitigation in the planning,construction and future operation of the related project in Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor.
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图 2 川藏交通廊道崩滑灾害分布图
Figure 2. Distribution map of collapses and landslides in Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor
图 3 各县区段崩滑灾害面密度分布图
Figure 3. Distribution map of collapses and landslides areal density by county section
图 4 各县区段崩滑灾害面密度柱状图
Figure 4. Histogram of collapses and landslides areal density by county section
图 15 频率比-逻辑回归耦合模型的危险性分区图
Figure 15. Hazard zoning map of frequency ratio-logistic regression coupling model
表 1 崩滑灾害面积分级表
Table 1. Collapses and landslides areas classification table
区间序号 面积间隔/m2 分布数量 数量占比/% 1 0~4000 1141 25.30 2 4000~8000 490 10.87 3 8000~16 000 488 10.82 4 16 000~32 000 473 10.49 5 32 000~64 000 507 11.24 6 64 000~128 000 468 10.38 7 128 000~256 000 462 10.25 8 256 000~10 000 000 480 10.65 
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表 2 评价因子频率比值和逻辑回归系数
Table 2. Frequency ratios and logistic regression coefficients of evaluation factors
评价因子 评价因子分级 频率比值 逻辑回归值 评价因子 评价因子分级 频率比值 逻辑回归值 高程/km 0~1 0.099 513 0.182 断裂/km 1.6~3.2 1.117 782 1.625 1~2 1.294 765 3.2~6.4 1.156 547 2~3 3.044 810 >6.4 0.882 970 3~4 1.676 706 水系/km 0~0.1 2.175 885 0.113 4~5 0.546 705 0.1~0.2 2.240 270 >5 0.238 032 0.2~0.4 2.430 123 坡度/(°) 0~10 0.437 014 1.338 0.4~0.8 2.415 046 10~20 0.697 578 0.8~1.6 2.075 301 20~30 1.007 597 1.6~3.2 1.474 384 30~40 1.289 215 3.2~6.4 0.679 401 40~50 1.509 384 >6.4 0.703 158 50~60 1.618 704 公路/km 0~0.1 1.286 178 0.840 >60 1.200 644 0.1~0.2 1.330 870 坡向 N 0.869 929 0.800 0.2~0.4 1.378 071 NE 0.969 153 0.4~0.8 1.215 726 E 0.832 112 0.8~1.6 0.933 685 SE 0.919 386 >1.6 0.513 087 S 1.076 432 地震动峰值加速度/g 0.10 0.426 318 0.714 SW 1.300 944 0.15 0.992 657 W 1.090 187 0.20 1.151 243 NW 0.873 002 0.30 0.925 663 工程地质岩组 松散 0.376 222 0.810 0.40 0.415 765 软弱 0.765 289 降雨/mm 500~700 0.979 200 0.561 较软弱 1.055 680 700~900 0.395 575 较坚硬 1.037 374 900~1100 0.661 034 坚硬 1.169 619 1100~1300 1.712 429 断裂/km 0~0.1 1.421 980 1.625 1300~1500 1.267 445 0.1~0.2 1.423 288 1500~1700 1.048 042 0.2~0.4 1.459 324 1700~1900 1.516 610 0.4~0.8 1.315 031 >1900 2.240 799 0.8~1.6 1.050 521
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表 3 危险性分区面积及比例
Table 3. Areas and ratios of different hazard zones
危险性分区 面积/km2 占比/% 极高 2838.00 10.61 高 5299.75 19.82 中等 6619.82 24.75 低 7000.21 26.18 极低 4985.33 18.64
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