川藏交通廊道崩滑灾害分布及其危险性评价

鲁晓 祁生文 郑博文 郭忻怡 李永超 郭松峰 邹宇 唐凤娇 姚翔龙 宋帅华 马丽娜 张琳鑫 刘方翠 罗光明 梁宁 台大平

鲁晓, 祁生文, 郑博文, 等. 2023. 川藏交通廊道崩滑灾害分布及其危险性评价[J]. 工程地质学报, 31(3): 718-735. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0085
引用本文: 鲁晓, 祁生文, 郑博文, 等. 2023. 川藏交通廊道崩滑灾害分布及其危险性评价[J]. 工程地质学报, 31(3): 718-735. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0085
Lu Xiao, Qi Shengwen, Zheng Bowen, et al. 2023. Distribution and hazard assessment of collapses and landslides in Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 31(3): 718-735. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0085
Citation: Lu Xiao, Qi Shengwen, Zheng Bowen, et al. 2023. Distribution and hazard assessment of collapses and landslides in Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 31(3): 718-735. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0085

川藏交通廊道崩滑灾害分布及其危险性评价

doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0085
基金项目: 

第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究 2019QZKK0904

详细信息
    作者简介:

    鲁晓(1997-),女,博士生,主要从事工程地质与地质灾害方面的研究工作. E-mail:luxiao@mail.iggcas.ac.cn

    通讯作者:

    祁生文(1975-),男,博士,研究员,博士生导师,主要从事工程地质与岩石力学方面的研究工作. E-mail:qishengwen@mail.iggcas.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: P642.21;P642.22

DISTRIBUTION AND HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF COLLAPSES AND LANDSLIDES IN SICHUAN-TIBET TRAFFIC CORRIDOR

Funds: 

the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) 2019QZKK0904

  • 摘要: 川藏交通廊道雅安到林芝段位于青藏高原东南部,沿线地质条件复杂、河流切割强烈、地质环境脆弱、新构造运动活跃,具有山高谷深、坡体稳定性差等特点,是我国崩滑灾害最发育、危害最严重的地区之一。为了保障廊道内相关工程的顺利建设和后期安全运营,本文以线路两侧一级分水岭为界,通过遥感解译和野外调查,获得川藏交通廊道雅安—林芝段崩滑灾害共4509处,在此基础上,选取高程、坡度、坡向、工程地质岩组、断裂、水系、公路、地震动峰值加速度、降雨共9个因子分析了灾害的空间分布规律及发育特征,建立了频率比法与逻辑回归方法耦合模型,并运用到高原山区重大交通廊道崩滑灾害危险性评价中。研究结果表明:(1)廊道沿线各县区段的崩滑灾害面密度在空间上总体呈从西向东递减的趋势。(2)有利于灾害发生的条件分别是:高程1~4 km,坡度大于20°,S、SW和W坡向,较软弱、较坚硬和坚硬岩组,距断裂6.4 km范围内,距水系3.2 km范围内,距公路800 m范围内,地震动峰值加速度0.20g,年均降雨量大于1100 mm。(3)将研究区危险性等级划分为极低危险(18.64%)、低危险(26.18%)、中等危险(24.75%)、高危险(19.82%)、极高危险(10.61%)5级,其中:极高危险区与高危险区主要分布在断裂附近和坡度较陡的区域。(4)耦合模型的AUC值达到了0.737,优于单一的频率比模型的0.712,表明耦合模型的评价结果具有更高的精度。该研究可为川藏交通廊道雅安到林芝段相关工程的规划、建设和未来运营过程中的防灾减灾工作提供重要参考。
  • 图  1  典型灾害图片

    a. 遥感影像;b. 野外照片,镜向317°

    Figure  1.  Typical disaster images

    图  2  川藏交通廊道崩滑灾害分布图

    Figure  2.  Distribution map of collapses and landslides in Sichuan-Tibet traffic corridor

    图  3  各县区段崩滑灾害面密度分布图

    Figure  3.  Distribution map of collapses and landslides areal density by county section

    图  4  各县区段崩滑灾害面密度柱状图

    Figure  4.  Histogram of collapses and landslides areal density by county section

    图  5  各影响因子频率比计算结果

    Figure  5.  Results of frequency ratios for influencing factors

    图  6  高程分级图

    Figure  6.  Elevation classification map

    图  7  坡度分级图

    Figure  7.  Slope gradient classification map

    图  8  坡向分级图

    Figure  8.  Aspect classification map

    图  9  工程地质岩组分级图

    Figure  9.  Engineering geological rock groups classification map

    图  10  距断裂距离分级图

    Figure  10.  Distance from faults classification map

    图  11  距水系距离分级图

    Figure  11.  Distance from rivers classification map

    图  12  距公路距离分级图

    Figure  12.  Distance from roads classification map

    图  13  地震动峰值加速度分级图

    Figure  13.  Peak ground acceleration classification map

    图  14  降雨量分级图

    Figure  14.  Rainfall classification map

    图  15  频率比-逻辑回归耦合模型的危险性分区图

    Figure  15.  Hazard zoning map of frequency ratio-logistic regression coupling model

    图  16  ROC曲线

    Figure  16.  ROC curve

    图  17  频率比模型的危险性分区图

    Figure  17.  Hazard zoning map of frequency ratio model

    表  1  崩滑灾害面积分级表

    Table  1.   Collapses and landslides areas classification table

    区间序号 面积间隔/m2 分布数量 数量占比/%
    1 0~4000 1141 25.30
    2 4000~8000 490 10.87
    3 8000~16 000 488 10.82
    4 16 000~32 000 473 10.49
    5 32 000~64 000 507 11.24
    6 64 000~128 000 468 10.38
    7 128 000~256 000 462 10.25
    8 256 000~10 000 000 480 10.65
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  评价因子频率比值和逻辑回归系数

    Table  2.   Frequency ratios and logistic regression coefficients of evaluation factors

    评价因子 评价因子分级 频率比值 逻辑回归值 评价因子 评价因子分级 频率比值 逻辑回归值
    高程/km 0~1 0.099 513 0.182 断裂/km 1.6~3.2 1.117 782 1.625
    1~2 1.294 765 3.2~6.4 1.156 547
    2~3 3.044 810 >6.4 0.882 970
    3~4 1.676 706 水系/km 0~0.1 2.175 885 0.113
    4~5 0.546 705 0.1~0.2 2.240 270
    >5 0.238 032 0.2~0.4 2.430 123
    坡度/(°) 0~10 0.437 014 1.338 0.4~0.8 2.415 046
    10~20 0.697 578 0.8~1.6 2.075 301
    20~30 1.007 597 1.6~3.2 1.474 384
    30~40 1.289 215 3.2~6.4 0.679 401
    40~50 1.509 384 >6.4 0.703 158
    50~60 1.618 704 公路/km 0~0.1 1.286 178 0.840
    >60 1.200 644 0.1~0.2 1.330 870
    坡向 N 0.869 929 0.800 0.2~0.4 1.378 071
    NE 0.969 153 0.4~0.8 1.215 726
    E 0.832 112 0.8~1.6 0.933 685
    SE 0.919 386 >1.6 0.513 087
    S 1.076 432 地震动峰值加速度/g 0.10 0.426 318 0.714
    SW 1.300 944 0.15 0.992 657
    W 1.090 187 0.20 1.151 243
    NW 0.873 002 0.30 0.925 663
    工程地质岩组 松散 0.376 222 0.810 0.40 0.415 765
    软弱 0.765 289 降雨/mm 500~700 0.979 200 0.561
    较软弱 1.055 680 700~900 0.395 575
    较坚硬 1.037 374 900~1100 0.661 034
    坚硬 1.169 619 1100~1300 1.712 429
    断裂/km 0~0.1 1.421 980 1.625 1300~1500 1.267 445
    0.1~0.2 1.423 288 1500~1700 1.048 042
    0.2~0.4 1.459 324 1700~1900 1.516 610
    0.4~0.8 1.315 031 >1900 2.240 799
    0.8~1.6 1.050 521
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  危险性分区面积及比例

    Table  3.   Areas and ratios of different hazard zones

    危险性分区 面积/km2 占比/%
    极高 2838.00 10.61
    5299.75 19.82
    中等 6619.82 24.75
    7000.21 26.18
    极低 4985.33 18.64
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2023-03-14
  • 修回日期:  2023-06-20
  • 刊出日期:  2023-06-25

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