水合物开采及海洋环境诱发地质灾害机理和风险评估研究现状与展望

    CURRENT SITUATION AND PROSPECTS OF RESEARCH ON MECHANISM ANALYSES AND RISK ASSESSMENTS OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS INDUCED BY HYDRATE EXPLOITATION AND MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS

    • 摘要: 深海油气资源的开发利用是解决我国能源问题的重要途径。能源开采等人类活动和地震等自然因素极易诱发海底地质灾害,威胁重大工程和设施安全,成为制约我国深海水合物资源开发的重要因素。本文梳理了现有的海底地质灾害的发生机理、链生演化规律以及多尺度分析现状,并对海洋地质灾害易发性、工程设施易损性以及风险评估现状进行综述。调研显示,现有海底地质灾害研究面临的主要问题为监测数据的稀缺,并缺乏有针对性的多场多相耦合分析方法和跨尺度问题的数值分析手段;地质灾害易发性和易损性研究中基础数据、评价模型、评价精度都不满足现有需求;风险评估中评价指标体系不尽客观和科学,且缺乏适用于工程实践的系统理论方法与软件,以及相关的风险控制标准与应对措施规范标准。针对上述问题,本文从储层勘探技术,沉积物宏微观本构模型,多尺度数值模拟计算方法和滑坡冲击力动态理论几个方面提出解决方案。并建议采用风险识别、风险评价和防减灾措施相结合的方式,实现风险可控的工程开发。同时,本文借助人工智能等新型手段,提出了多尺度多时空耦合数字三胞框架,为我国下一步琼东南盆地等大型海底水合物赋存区开发提供参考。

       

      Abstract: The development and utilization of deep-sea oil and gas is a crucial solution to our energy challenges. The submarine geological hazards are likely generated by natural factors(earthquake, et al.) and human being activities(exploitation, et al.), threatening the safety of major engineering and existing facilities. This work reviews the existing research status of the generation mechanism and multi-scale evolution pattern of marine geological hazards. Moreover, it also summarizes the vulnerability of marine geological hazards, engineering facility, and the current status of risk assessment. According to the literature, the research on geological hazards faces several challenges. Firstly, there is a scarcity of monitoring data and a lack of targeted multi-field/multi-phase coupling analysis methods and multi-scale numerical analysis methods; Secondly, the existing basic data, evaluation models, and accuracy of studying geological hazard susceptibility and vulnerability are insufficient to meet the existing demand; Thirdly, the evaluation index system used in risk assessment is not objective and scientific, and lacks systematic theoretical methods and software suitable for engineering practice, as well as relevant norms and standards for risk control standards and response measures of seabed geological hazards. This paper proposes several solutions to address the challenges faced in the research of geological hazards in the Qiongdongnan Basin. These solutions encompass exploration technology of reservoir, macro and micro constitutive models of sediment, multi-scale numerical simulation, and the dynamic theory of landslide impact force. Furthermore, it suggests that risk identification, risk assessment, and mitigation measures should be integrated to achieve controllable risk development. At the same time, with the help of new methods such as artificial intelligence, this paper proposes a multi-scale and multi-spatial-temporal coupling digital triplet framework, which provides the reference for geological hazard research of large hydrate reservoir(Qiongdongnan Basin, et al.)exploitation in the next step.

       

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