基于确定性系数与信息量耦合模型的新疆额敏县地质灾害易发性评价

    EVALUATION OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARD SUSCEPTIBILITY IN EMIN COUNTY, XINJIANG BASED ON DETERMINISTIC COEFFICIENT AND INFORMATION COUPLING MODEL

    • 摘要: 地质灾害已经对人类生命财产安全和自然环境造成了巨大的威胁,合理准确的易发性评价研究对于防灾减灾具有重要的现实意义。目前,多种模型耦合的易发评价方法已成为研究热点,但将信息量模型与确定性系数模型(Certainty Factor,CF)耦合进行易发性评价研究却相对较少。本文基于额敏县地质环境背景,结合野外地质调查及评价因子选取原则,在分析各评价因子地质灾害发育分布规律及相关性的基础上,选择高程、坡度、坡向、地面曲率、工程地质岩组、距断层距离、距道路距离、距水系距离、降雨量等9个评价指标,采用CF模型、信息量模型以及CF与信息量耦合模型开展额敏县易发性评价研究。结果表明,耦合模型评价结果的合理性与准确度均优于两种单一模型,CF与信息量耦合模型的AUC值高达0.862;耦合模型将易发区分为:低易发区42.39%,中度易发区28.76%,高易发区23.62%,极高易发区5.23%,其中极高和高易发区主要分布在切割深度大、沟两侧坡度陡峭、基岩裸露、节理裂隙发育、风化严重、降雨量大的区域,灾害点密度分别达到了6.62个/100 km2和5.11个/100 km2。采用耦合模型得到的额敏县易发性评价分析结果可为该地区地质灾害监测预警和防治规划提供技术参考。

       

      Abstract: Geological disasters have already caused great threats to human life and property safety and natural environment. Reasonable and accurate evaluation of the vulnerability has important practical significance for disaster prevention and reduction. At present, the certainty factor model coupled with information content model has become a research hotspot. However, relatively few studies are available in evaluating the certainty factor. Based on the geological environment background of Emin County, combined with the field geological survey and the selection principle of evaluation factors, this paper selects 9 evaluation indexes. On the basis of analyzing the distribution and correlation of geological hazards development of each evaluation factor, they include elevation, slope, slope direction, ground curvature, engineering geological rock group, distance from fault, distance from road, distance from water system and rainfall. The certainty factor model, the information model and the coupling model of the cetainty factor and the information are used to evaluate the susceptibility of geo-hazards in Emin County. The results show that the rationality and accuracy of the coupled model are better than those of the two single models. The AUC value of the cetainty factor and information coupled model is as high as 0.862. The coupling model divides the prone areas into: low-prone area 42.39%, moderately prone area 28.76%, high-prone area 23.62%, and extremely high prone area 5.23%, respectively. The extremely high and high-prone areas were mainly distributed in the areas with large cutting depth, steep slope on both sides of the ditch, exposed bedrock, joint development, severe weathering, and heavy rainfall. The density of disaster sites reached 6.62 per 100 km2 and 5.11 per 100 km2, respectively. The results of vulnerability evaluation and analysis in Emin County obtained by coupling model can provide technical reference for geological hazard monitoring, early warning and prevention planning in this area.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回