考虑体积与形状不确定性的高位危岩风险量化评估研究

    A QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT STUDY OF HIGH-LEVEL HAZARDOUS ROCKS, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO VOLUME AND SHAPE

    • 摘要: 以舟曲县城关镇崩塌区为例,通过野外地质调查和无人机航拍,建立了城关镇崩塌区边坡岩体点云模型和边坡三维地形模型,基于点云数据建立结构面识别和解译算法,自动获取结构面产状信息和提取结构面间距、面积等几何信息,并基于结构面信息利用不确定性方法,获取危岩块体体积的分布和形状的分布;基于三维地形模型,利用Unity 3D引擎,考虑影响落石运动轨迹参数的不确定性,对城关镇崩塌区不同体积、不同形状的落石块体在三维空间下运动路径、高度、能量等要素进行模拟,从而获得更好的落石的三维运动特征模拟结果。最后结合模拟结果对舟曲县城关镇崩塌灾害进行风险评估。结果显示,研究区的崩塌灾害风险大都表现为中低级,其中立方块体和板状块体在C3区域的风险为中等风险;5 m3的落石块体在C3区域的风险为中等风险,17 m3的落石块体在C2、C3和C4区域的风险均为中等风险,这对坡脚建筑物及人员构成较为严重的威胁。该研究结果表明,利用上述方法对单体高陡边坡危岩进行风险评估是合理的,可以为相关崩塌灾害的防治提供建议和科学参考。

       

      Abstract: Taking the collapse area of Chengguan Town in Zhouqu County as an example, through field geological investigation and UAV aerial photography, we established a point cloud model of the slope rock and a three-dimensional terrain model of the slope in the collapse area of Chengguan Town. Based on the point cloud data, we established a structural surface identification and interpretation algorithm to automatically obtain the structural surface yield information and extract geometric information such as structural surface spacing and area. Using the structural surface information and uncertainty methods, we obtained the distribution of volume and shape of the hazardous rock mass. Based on the three-dimensional terrain model, the Unity 3D engine is used to simulate the movement paths, heights, energy, and other elements of different volumes and shapes of falling rocks in the collapse area of Chengguan Town in three-dimensional space. By considering the uncertainty of the parameters affecting the trajectory of the falling rocks, we obtained better simulation results of the three-dimensional movement characteristics of the falling rocks. Finally, the risk assessment of the collapse disaster in Chengguan Town, Zhouqu County, was carried out by combining the simulation results. The results show that most of the avalanche disaster risks in the study area are expressed as low to medium level. Among these, the risks of cubic blocks and slab-like blocks in the C3 area are medium risks; the risks of 5 m3 falling rock blocks in the C3 area are medium risks, and the risks of 17 m3 falling rock blocks in the C2, C3, and C4 areas are medium risks, which pose a more serious threat to the buildings at the foot of the slopes and the people. The results of this study show that it is reasonable to utilize the above method to assess the risk of dangerous rocks on single high steep slopes, which can provide suggestions and scientific references for the prevention and control of related landslide disasters.

       

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