不同评价单元的滑坡易发性评价精度对比分析

    COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT ACCURACY IN DIFFERENT EVALUATION UNITS

    • 摘要: 理县杂谷脑河流域是典型的河流深切峡谷地貌,地质构造活动强烈,滑坡灾害频发。本文综合理县实际地质条件,结合杂谷脑河流域滑坡变形发育特征,从地形、地质和自然3大类因子中选取高程、地形切割深度等16个影响因子,通过频率比模型来量化影响因子与滑坡发生的关系,然后应用随机森林(random forest)模型和XGBoost(eXtreme gradient boosting)模型在栅格单元和斜坡单元下分别进行滑坡灾害易发性评价,通过ROC曲线和混淆矩阵对各组合进行精度评估,最后叠加评价单元下的形变速率图,实现杂谷脑流域精确的易发性评价。结果表明:地形、地质和自然因子3大类影响因子中频率最高分别是地形切割深度、地层和土地利用;RF和XGBoost模型中影响因子对滑坡的重要性排序有相似之处,且两种模型在栅格单元下地层是主控因素,在斜坡单元下地形切割深度是主控因素;ROC曲线评估下,RF-栅格单元、RF-斜坡单元、XGBoost-栅格单元和XGBoost-斜坡单元的AUC值分别为0.942、0.928、0.934、0.920,混淆矩阵计算RF和XGBoost预测滑坡易发性的召回率、精确率和准确率的结果中,RF-栅格单元的召回率、精确率和准确率分别为0.935、0.956和0.945,均高于其他3种模型组合。充分说明RF-栅格单元模型对理县杂谷脑河区域滑坡易发性评价的精度比其他组合下的模型高,能够为该区域的防灾减灾提供可靠参考。

       

      Abstract: The Zagunao River Basin in Lixian County features a typical deep-cut river canyon landscape characterized by active geological processes and frequent landslides. This study integrates the geological conditions of Lixian County with the deformation and developmental characteristics of landslides in the Zagunao River Basin. Sixteen influencing factors, including elevation and terrain cutting depth, were selected across three categories: topography, geology, and natural factors. The frequency ratio model was employed to quantify the relationship between these factors and landslide occurrences. Landslide susceptibility assessments were then conducted using Random Forest(RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost) models at both grid cell and slope unit levels. Model performance was evaluated using ROC curves and confusion matrices. Additionally, the deformation rate maps of the evaluation units were superimposed to achieve a precise susceptibility assessment of the Zagunao River Basin. The results indicate that terrain cutting depth, stratigraphy, and land use were the most significant factors among topography, geology, and natural factors. Both RF and XGBoost models showed similar importance rankings for influencing factors. In grid cell assessments, stratigraphy emerged as the dominant factor, whereas terrain cutting depth was the primary controlling factor in slope unit assessments. ROC curve evaluations revealed AUC values of 0.942, 0.928, 0.934, and 0.920 for RF-grid cells, RF-slope units, XGBoost-grid cells, and XGBoost-slope units, respectively. The confusion matrix results demonstrated that the RF-grid cell model outperformed the other models, with recall, precision, and accuracy scores of 0.935, 0.956, and 0.945, respectively. These findings highlight the RF-grid cell model as the most accurate approach for assessing landslide susceptibility in the Zagunao River Basin, providing valuable insights for disaster prevention and mitigation efforts in Lixian County.

       

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