Abstract:
The Xinjiang S101 highway is located in the low and middle mountainous area of the western section of the northern Tianshan Mountains. The geological conditions along the road are complex, the lithology changes frequently, and landslide geological disasters occur frequently. Taking the 500 mm catchment area on both sides of the S101 highway mountain section as the research area, a detailed field investigation of the road section was conducted. Ten factors were selected, including elevation, slope, aspect, distance from fault, distance from highway, distance from water system, peak acceleration of ground motion, stratum lithology, annual average precipitation, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The information quantity model, the logistic regression model, and the information quantity-logistic regression coupling model were used to evaluate the risk of the road section. The results showed that: (1) The conditions conducive to landslide occurrence in the area are:elevation 1.4~1.8 km; slope 20°~30°; slope aspect NE,N,NW; distance from fault 0.4~0.8 km and 6.4~12.8 km; within 100 m from the road; within 400 m from the water system; peak ground motion acceleration 0.30 g; engineering geological rock group weak and hard; rainfall 200~260 mm; NDVI 0.05~0.35. (2) The proportion of landslide points in high and extremely high risk areas (83.62%) and the
AUC value (0.885) of the coupling model were higher than those of the information model (79.51% and 0.741) and the logistic regression model (78.69% and 0.875) used alone. (3) Taking the risk assessment results of the information-logistic regression coupling model as the final outcome, the risk zoning of the S101 highway mountain section in Xinjiang was carried out. Among them, 107 landslides occurred in medium, high and extremely high risk areas, accounting for 87.7%. (4) This study can provide a reference for the maintenance, disaster point investigation and prevention, and quality improvement of the S101 highway in Xinjiang in the later period.