基于可解释混合机器学习方法的滑坡易发性建模研究

    STUDY ON LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MODELING BASED ON EXPLAINABLE HYBRID MACHINE LEARNING METHODS

    • 摘要: 滑坡易发性评价对于滑坡风险管控和土地利用规划具有重要意义。本研究以巴东县主城区为例,收集了该区域内50处历史滑坡,构建了一个包含14个滑坡因子的滑坡易发性指标体系。为克服以往单一机器学习模型的局限性,本文提出了一种基于贝叶斯优化算法的混合机器学习模型,对研究区的滑坡易发性进行了综合评价,并利用SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)方法对最优模型进行了深入解释。结果显示:BO-XGBoost模型的受试者工作(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)为0.980,相比BO-LR、BO-DT、BO-SVM、BO-RF和BO-LGBM模型得分要高,表明BO-XGBoost模型具有良好的预测性能;滑坡易发性图显示,巴东县主城区的滑坡高易发区主要集中在河流沿岸和道路密集区域,而低易发区主要分布在海拔较高且植被茂密的区域;频率比分析结果表明,该滑坡易发性图能够有效区分滑坡高易发和低易发区;基于SHAP方法对模型进行深入解释,发现影响研究区滑坡发生的主要因素为距水系距离、年降雨量、土地利用类型和距断层距离等,此外,模型解释力图揭示了在单次预测过程中,各滑坡因子对易发性的贡献大小。本研究为滑坡易发性建模及模型解释提供了新的思路。

       

      Abstract: Landslide susceptibility assessment is of great significance for landslide risk management and land-use planning. This study focuses on the main urban area of Badong County, collecting data from 50 historical landslides and constructing a susceptibility index system comprising 14 influencing factors. To address the limitations of traditional single machine learning models, we proposed a hybrid model based on Bayesian optimization for a comprehensive evaluation of landslide susceptibility. The model was further interpreted using the SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)method. The results indicate that the BO-XGBoost model achieved an Area Under the Curve(AUC) of 0.982, significantly higher than the scores of the BO-LR, BO-DT, BO-SVM, BO-RF, and BO-LGBM models, demonstrating strong predictive performance of the BO-XGBoost model. The landslide susceptibility map revealed that high-susceptibility areas in the main urban area of Badong County were primarily concentrated along riverbanks and in regions with dense road networks, while low-risk areas are predominantly found in high-elevation, densely vegetated zones. Frequency ratio analysis confirmed that the susceptibility map effectively distinguished between high and low susceptibility areas. An in-depth explanation based on SHAP identified key factors influencing landslide occurrences in the study area, including distance to streams, annual rainfall, land use type, and distance to faults, while providing insights into the relative contributions of each factor to susceptibility during individual predictions. This research offers new perspectives on landslide susceptibility modeling and its interpretability.

       

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