基于机器学习的崩滑灾害易发性评价模型研究——以白龙江流域为例

    RESEARCH ON SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT OF LANDSLIDE AND COLLAPSE DISASTERS BASED ON MACHINE LEARNING MODELS—A CASE STUDY OF BAILONG RIVER BASIN

    • 摘要: 地质灾害多发、频发对社会经济及城镇发展会造成严重影响,极大威胁人类生命财产安全,故准确的地质灾害易发性评价结果是部署防灾减灾工作和城镇空间规划的关键。白龙江流域山高坡陡、沟谷深切、岩性软弱,伴随着复杂的区域动力环境和极端的气候条件,是我国地质灾害高易发区之一。本文选取高程、地层岩性、起伏度、河流缓冲距离、断层缓冲距离、坡度、坡向、坡形9个评价因子,采用证据权模型(WOE)、支持向量机模型(SVM)、证据权-支持向量机耦合模型(WOE-SVM)、随机森林模型(RF)及证据权-随机森林耦合模型(WOE-RF)开展崩滑灾害易发性评价模型研究,对比分析模型预测效果。结果表明,基于机器学习的易发性评价模型预测准确性相较于WOE模型得到了显著提升,耦合模型的AUC值最高达到0.9999,高、中易发区内发育的地质灾害数量占比达98%,评价结果与崩滑灾害的空间位置分布表现出一致性;WOE-RF耦合模型预测精度最高,表现出最佳的预测性能和泛化能力,评价结果更适作为防灾减灾和长期重大工程规划建设的参考依据。

       

      Abstract: The frequent occurrence of geological disasters poses severe impacts on the social economy and urban development, presenting a significant threat to human lives and property. Therefore, accurate assessment of geological disaster susceptibility is crucial for disaster prevention and urban spatial planning. The Bailong River Basin is characterized by steep slopes, high relative relief, deep incised valleys, and weak lithologic features, along with a complex regional dynamic environment and extreme climatic conditions, making it a highly prone area for geological disasters in China. In this paper, nine evaluation factors, including elevation, lithology, relief, river buffer distance, fault buffer distance, slope, aspect, and slope type, are selected. The Weight of Evidence (WOE) model,Support Vector Machine (SVM), WOE-SVM coupled model, Random Forest (RF) model, and WOE-RF coupled model are used to study the susceptibility assessment model of landslide and collapse disasters, and the prediction effects of these models are compared and analyzed. The results indicate that the prediction accuracy of the machine learning-based susceptibility models is significantly improved compared to the WOE model. The AUC of the coupled models reaches a maximum of 0.9999, with 98% of geological disasters occurring in high and medium susceptibility zones. The assessment results are consistent with the spatial location distribution of disasters. The WOE-RF coupled model demonstrates the highest prediction accuracy, exhibiting superior predictive performance and generalization capability. The assessment result is more suitable as a reference for disaster prevention and long-term major project planning and construction.

       

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