基于运动特征的某公路泥石流危险性评价及路线方案优化

    KINEMATIC CHARACTERISTICS-BASED DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD ASSESSMENT AND ROUTE OPTIMIZATION FOR A SPECIFIC HIGHWAY

    • 摘要: 泥石流灾害严重制约着山区公路的设计、建设与运营。本文以我国新疆南疆某山区公路为研究对象,采用现场调查法分析了沿线泥石流的孕灾环境与发育特征;针对路线所涉及的K180段泥石流,利用FLO-2D数值模拟软件,模拟了3种不同暴雨频率(P=1%,P=2%及P=5%)下泥石流堆积深度和流速变化等方面的运动特征;基于运动特征,分析了该泥石流灾害的危险性,并提出了路线的优化设计方案。结果表明:研究区泥石流形成所需的构造、地形、风化、降雨等内外部条件极充分,导致区域泥石流频发;不同暴雨频率下由经验公式法求得的单次泥石流冲出方量与数值模拟结果的相对误差在8.52% ~13.98%之间,在合理误差范围内,表明模拟结果可靠度较高。在P=1%降雨频率下,比选线方案中的部分路基段有被淹没的可能,优化后的路线则有效避开高风险区域,降低了泥石流对道路结构的威胁。本文基于运动特征的泥石流危险性评价方法可有效指导公路设计,为山区公路泥石流灾害防治提供科学依据和实用参考,具有重要的理论与工程实践意义。

       

      Abstract: Debris flow disasters present major challenges for the design, construction, and operation of road networks in mountainous regions. This study focuses on a highway in the southern mountainous area of Xinjiang, China, where comprehensive field investigations were conducted to analyze the disaster-prone environment and developmental characteristics of debris flows along the route. Specifically, for the K180 highway section, debris flow dynamics were simulated using the FLO-2D numerical model under three rainfall scenarios (P=1%, 2%, and 5%) to assess key movement characteristics such as deposition depth and flow velocity. The results indicate that the region's geological structure, topography, weathering conditions, and rainfall patterns collectively create an environment prone to frequent debris flows. The relative error between debris flow discharge volumes calculated from empirical formulas and those derived from numerical simulations ranges from 8.52% to 13.98%, which falls within an acceptable margin and confirms the reliability of the simulation results. Under the P=1% rainfall scenario, certain roadbed sections of the original alignment are at risk of inundation. In contrast, the optimized route effectively avoids high-risk areas, reducing threats to road infrastructure. This study proposes a hazard assessment method based on debris flow dynamics, providing valuable guidance for highway design and offering a scientific basis for debris flow disaster prevention and mitigation in mountainous areas. This approach holds significant theoretical and practical value for research and engineering applications.

       

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