新滩滑坡成功预报四十周年

    THE 40TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE SUCCESSFUL PREDICTION OF XINTAN LANDSLIDE

    • 摘要: 1985年6月12日凌晨3点45分左右发生了震惊中外的新滩滑坡,滑坡成功预报,无一人伤亡,被誉为世界滑坡预报史上的奇迹,对滑坡地质灾害防灾减灾具有重要意义。基于地质调查和监测成果,结合滑坡内外动力作用因素,分析了崩塌加载和降雨作用下新滩滑坡的成灾过程和灾变力学机制,总结了新滩滑坡变形规律、临滑特征及成功预报的过程和经验,指出了目前滑坡预警预测预报研究存在的问题与不足,随着大数据和人工智能技术的快速发展,多技术协同监测及多源数据融合、数据驱动和机制驱动的滑坡预警预测预报研究成为重要的发展方向。针对崩塌加载型堆积体滑坡,应在早期判识和风险研判、高山峡谷区高速滑坡碎屑流的演化机制及防控等方面进一步研究。研究成果为崩塌堆积加载型滑坡防灾减灾能力提升提供参考。

       

      Abstract: At approximately 3:45 a.m. on June 12, 1985, the catastrophic Xintan Landslide occurred. This event was successfully predicted in advance, resulting in no human casualties—a landmark achievement in global landslide early warning that has provided valuable insights for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation. Based on geological surveys and monitoring data, combined with analysis of both internal and external dynamic factors affecting the landslide, this study systematically investigated the disaster-inducing factors, failure process, and catastrophic mechanisms of the Xintan Landslide. It summarized the deformation patterns, pre-failure characteristics, successful prediction prcess, and lessons learned from the event. With the rapid development of big data and artificial intelligence technologies, research on landslide early warning and prediction through multi-technology collaborative monitoring, multi-source data fusion, and both data-driven and mechanism-driven approaches has become an important research direction. This study identifies key issues requiring further investigation in the study of collapse-loaded accumulation landslides, including: (1)risk assessment methodologies for such landslides, (2)evolution mechanisms and prevention strategies for high-speed debris flows in alpine valley regions, and(3)monitoring and early warning systems for collapse-loaded accumulation landslides. These findings provide valuable references for disaster prevention and mitigation of collapse-loaded accumulation landslides.

       

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