四川筠连高位滑坡-碎屑流灾害链式成因机制及应急监测预警研究

    A STUDY ON THE CASCADING FORMATION MECHANISM OF THE HIGH-POSITION LANDSLIDE TO DEBRIS FLOW DISASTER AND ITS EMERGENCY MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING IN JUNLIAN, SICHUAN

    • 摘要: 2025年2月8日,四川省宜宾市筠连县沐爱镇金坪村发生大型高位滑坡-碎屑流灾害,造成重大人员伤亡与财产损失。本文综合现场调查、遥感解译和监测数据,揭示了此次灾害的链式成因机制。滑坡发生在四川盆地向云贵高原过渡的构造侵蚀中山地貌区,具有典型的“L型”高陡地形特征,物源区后壁至剪出口垂直高差283 m,平均坡度42.7°。区域地质构造复杂,位于川滇菱形块体东缘,临近华蓥山断裂带,岩体破碎,软硬互层结构为滑坡提供了潜在滑动面。受“昆明准静止锋”影响的冬季冻融循环致使岩体渐进性劣化,而2025年1月以来逾300 mm的异常持续降雨为直接诱因,通过饱和岩土体、激增孔隙水压力,最终使抗剪强度骤降,滑坡演化呈现“裂隙发展-冻融劣化-降雨入渗-贯通破坏-高速运动-碎屑流转化”的链式过程,峰值速度达56.29 m·s-1。边坡雷达与滚石雷达协同应用的应急监测系统,成功预警了2月12日的次生垮塌,保障了救援人员安全撤离。揭示了乌蒙山区“冻融劣化+异常降雨”复合致灾模式,为类似区域地质灾害防控提供了科学依据。

       

      Abstract: A large-scale,high-elevation landslide-debris flow struck Jinping Village,Mu'ai Town,Junlian County,Yibin City,Sichuan Province,on February 8,2025,causing severe casualties and property damage. By synthesizing on-site investigations,remote sensing interpretation,and monitoring data,this study reveals the formation mechanism of the disaster chain. The event occurred in a tectonic-erosional,medium-altitude mountain landscape at the transition from the Sichuan Basin to the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau,featuring characteristic "L-shaped" high,steep topography with a 283-meter vertical drop from the headscarp to the shear outlet and an average slope of 42.7°. The complex regional geology of the area, located on the eastern margin of the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block near the Huaying Mountain fault zone,featured fractured rock mass and interbedded soft and hard strata, which provided potential sliding surfaces for landslide. Progressive deterioration of the rock mass was driven by winter freeze-thaw cycles under the influence of the"Kunming quasi-stationary front."The immediate trigger was exceptional persistent rainfall of over 300 mm since January 2025,which saturated the geomaterials,generated a surge in pore water pressure,and ultimately led to a sharp decrease in shear strength. The failure evolved through a chain process: fissure development-freeze-thaw degradation-rainfall infiltration-coalescent rupture-high-velocity movement-debris flow transformation,reaching a peak velocity of 56.29 m·s-1. An emergency monitoring system combining slope radars and rockfall radars successfully predicted the secondary collapse on February 12,ensuring the safe evacuation of rescue teams. This research identifies a compound disaster-triggering pattern of"freeze-thaw degradation plus abnormal rainfall" in the Wumeng Mountains area,providing a scientific foundation for prevention and control of geological disasters in analogous regions.

       

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