长春市中心城区黏性土物理力学性质关联关系分析——基于结构方程模型视角

    CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF PHYSICAL AND MECHANICAL PROPERTIES OF COHESIVE SOILS IN THE CENTRAL URBAN AREA OF CHANGCHUN CITY: A PERSPECTIVE BASED ON STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING

    • 摘要: 为了揭示黏性土物理力学参数的多维度复杂关联,基于长春市中心城区2~20m埋深范围内1051个黏性土有效样本的工程勘察数据,构建黏性土物理-力学性质关联的结构方程模型(SEM),突破以往研究“预测导向”的单一范式,弥补对内在机制解析不足的缺陷。采用Bootstrap重抽样与虚拟变量法敏感性分析,量化评估参数估计稳定性及混杂变量影响,并结合广义加性模型(GAM)识别模型路径的非线性特征。结果表明,构建的SEM拟合良好(CFI=0.991、TLI=0.954),液性指数IL是调控黏性土压缩系数a、黏聚力c、内摩擦角正切值tanφ(摩擦系数)的核心物理指标,与压缩系数a显著正相关、与黏聚力c及内摩擦角正切值tanφ(摩擦系数)显著负相关,路径系数稳定且物理机制明确;多数路径受遗漏混杂变量影响明显,提示在进一步的研究中增加反映“矿物成分”“微观结构”的指标参数;c~IL、tanφ~w两条路径具有明显的非线性特征,使得模型对新样本c、tanφ的预测表现欠佳,未来可考虑融合SEM与机器学习技术,发展兼具理论可解释性与非线性拟合能力的混合模型。研究成果为黏性土工程参数优化、力学参数预测模型改进提供理论依据,丰富了黏性土多参数关联的研究方法,可为相似地区岩土工程勘察设计提供参考。

       

      Abstract: To reveal the multi-dimensional complex correlations among the physical and mechanical parameters of cohesive soils, a structural equation model(SEM)was established based on the engineering investigation data of 1051 valid cohesive soil samples at a depth of 2~20m in the central urban area of Changchun City. The single prediction-oriented paradigm of previous studies was broken through and the deficiency of insufficient analysis on internal action mechanisms was remedied. Bootstrap resampling and sensitivity analysis with phantom variables were employed to quantitatively assess parameter estimation stability and the impact of confounding variables. Generalized Additive Model(GAM)were integrated to identify non-linear characteristics of model paths. The results demonstrate that the constructed SEM exhibits satisfactory goodness-of-fit(CFI=0.991, TLI=0.954). The liquidity index(IL)acts as the core physical indicator governing the compression coefficient(a), cohesion(c), and tangent of internal friction angle(tanφ) of cohesive soils; it is significantly positively correlated with the compression coefficient a, and significantly negatively correlated with cohesion c and tanφ, with stable path coefficients and an explicit physical mechanism. Most paths are obviously affected by omitted confounding variables, suggesting that indicators reflecting"mineral composition" and"microstructure" should be incorporated in subsequent research. Distinct nonlinear characteristics are observed in the c-IL and tanφ-w paths, which results in poor prediction performance of the model for cohesion c and tangent of internal friction angle (tanφ) of new samples. In the future, the integration of SEM with machine learning techniques can be considered to develop a hybrid model with both theoretical interpretability and nonlinear fitting ability. The research results provide a theoretical basis for the optimization of engineering parameters and the improvement of mechanical parameter prediction models for cohesive soils, enrich the research methods for multi-parameter correlations of cohesive soils, and can serve as a reference for geotechnical engineering investigation and design in similar areas.

       

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