王思敬. 2011: 极端地质灾害与风险. 工程地质学报, 19(3): 289-296.
    引用本文: 王思敬. 2011: 极端地质灾害与风险. 工程地质学报, 19(3): 289-296.
    WANG Sijing. 2011: EXTREME GEO-DISASTERS AND RISKS. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 19(3): 289-296.
    Citation: WANG Sijing. 2011: EXTREME GEO-DISASTERS AND RISKS. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 19(3): 289-296.

    极端地质灾害与风险

    EXTREME GEO-DISASTERS AND RISKS

    • 摘要: 极端地质灾害与风险是本文提出的一个概念。在地球演进过程中,极端地质灾害被认为是小概率事件。但这并不意味这种小概率的自然灾害只发生在遥远的未来,也不能排除这种事件发生在我们现在或者未来不久几代人中间。2008年汶川8.0级强震,吞噬了数万人的生命,大量的建筑被损毁,就是这种极端自然灾害的典型实例。它再一次向人类发出警告,一旦产生,后果将非常可怕。因此作者呼吁工程地质学家们要注意并研究这种极端灾害与风险。科学地判识可引发极端地质灾害的自然营力级别,为灾害预测提供基础,是工程地质工作的基本目标之一。地圈动力过程的区域研究将对实现这一目标有所帮助。评价一个地方的潜在风险,灾害影响区域的估计方法非常重要,同时对破坏结果和破坏对象易损性相关关系的进一步分析,可以得到一个灾害风险性级别。风险管理的策略中,预警措施和警告要受到足够重视,而不仅仅是工程防护。在极端风险减灾中,公众意识和对灾害的预备程度也同样重要。一系列的减灾的战略措施可以相应地制定出来,这不同于普通的安全设计标准和非工程措施。随着社会和技术的进步,在不久的将来,人类减少和管理极端自然灾害的能力必将大大提高。

       

      Abstract: A concept of Extreme Geo-Disaster and Risk is proposed in this paper.Extreme geo-disasters are considered to be geo-events of most low probability in the earth recent evolution.However,low probability of natural event does not mean that it will happen only in the far future,and it does not exclude that such geo-disasters may happen in relatively near future within our or next generations.Strong earthquake Ms 8.0 on 12th May, 2008 in Wenchuan,China,which caused large amount of fatalities and structure damage,showed the typical characteristics of an extreme natural disaster.It once again rang a tocsin to warning human society.It is a question,if human would forget it,when it passed and the terrible situation changed.Therefore,the author appeals that engineering geologists have to pay attention to and deal with such extreme disasters and risks.Scientific recognition of the level of natural dynamic forces responsible for extreme disaster provides an essential basis in the disaster prediction,and this should be one of the essential objectives of engineering geology.Regional study of geo-sphere dynamic processes may help in aiming at this purpose.To assess the potential risk an approach of impact area estimation is important and further analysis of relationship between the damaging effect and vulnerability damaged objects gives an assessed level of disaster risk.In the strategy of risk management a kind of precaution measure and warning should be focused instead of merely engineering protection.Social awareness and preparedness are equally important in the extreme risk mitigation.Accordingly a series of strategic measures may be worked out for the disaster reduction,which are different from that of normal safety design standard and mainly consist of non-engineering measures.In the progress of science and technology the human capability in reduction and management of extreme natural disaster should be much updated in the near future.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回