Abstract: In consideration of the physical,chemical and mechanical effects of groundwater to landslides around the Three Gorge Reservoir,this paper demonstrates that the mechanical effect of groundwater on the stability of the landslides in the area of the Three Gorge Reservoir is much greater than the physical and chemical effects of groundwater.Based on this knowledge,the total pressure head in a landslide body is introduced.Different mechanical effects of groundwater are simplified into a total water pressure head.Landslide prediction model of rainfall,reservoir level fluctuation are established with load and unload response theory(LURT).Numerical simulation results of landslide process indicate that this method can estimate the stability state and evolution stage of a landslide quantitatively.Take LURT leaping as the failure boding of a landslide,the sliding time of the landslide can be predicted.Analysis of Badong landslide monitoring data also indicate that LURT method can judge the steady-state and sliding time of landslide directly.