逻辑回归模型在玉树地震滑坡危险性评价中的应用与检验

许冲 徐锡伟

许冲, 徐锡伟. 2012: 逻辑回归模型在玉树地震滑坡危险性评价中的应用与检验. 工程地质学报, 20(3): 326-333.
引用本文: 许冲, 徐锡伟. 2012: 逻辑回归模型在玉树地震滑坡危险性评价中的应用与检验. 工程地质学报, 20(3): 326-333.
XU Chong, XU Xiwei. 2012: LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL AND ITS VALIDATION FOR HAZARD MAPPING OF LANDSLIDES TRIGGERED BY YUSHU EARTHQUAKE. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 20(3): 326-333.
Citation: XU Chong, XU Xiwei. 2012: LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL AND ITS VALIDATION FOR HAZARD MAPPING OF LANDSLIDES TRIGGERED BY YUSHU EARTHQUAKE. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 20(3): 326-333.

逻辑回归模型在玉树地震滑坡危险性评价中的应用与检验

基金项目: 

科学技术部国际科技合作项目(2009DFA21280), 国家自然科学基金项目(40821160550 & 40974057)和中国地震局地质研究所基本科研业务专项(IGCEA0905 & ZGCEA1120)资助

详细信息
  • 中图分类号: P642

LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL AND ITS VALIDATION FOR HAZARD MAPPING OF LANDSLIDES TRIGGERED BY YUSHU EARTHQUAKE

  • 摘要: 2010年4月14日07时49分(北京时间),青海省玉树县发生了Ms7.1级大地震。作者基于高分辨率遥感影像解译与现场调查验证的方法,圈定了2036处本次地震诱发滑坡。这些滑坡受地震地表破裂控制强烈,规模相对较小,常常密集成片分布。滑坡类型多样,以崩塌型滑坡为主,还包括滑动型、流滑型、碎屑流型、复合型等类型的滑坡。本文基于地理信息系统(GIS)与遥感(RS)技术,应用逻辑回归模型开展玉树地震滑坡危险性评价,并对结果合理性进行检验。应用GIS技术建立玉树地震滑坡灾害及相关滑坡影响因子空间数据库,选择高程、斜坡坡度、斜坡坡向、斜坡曲率、与水系距离、坡位、断裂、地层岩性、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、公路、同震地表破裂、地震动峰值加速度(PGA)共12个因子作为玉树地震滑坡影响因子,在GIS平台下将这些因子专题图层栅格化。应用逻辑回归模型得到每个因子分级的回归系数,然后建立滑坡危险性指数分布图。利用玉树地震滑坡空间分布图对滑坡危险性指数图进行检验,正确率达到83.21%。滑坡危险性分级结果表明,在占研究区总面积4.97%的"很高危险度"的较小范围内,实际发育滑坡数量为766个,占总滑坡面积的比例高达37.62%,表明地震滑坡危险性评价结果良好。不同危险性级别的滑坡点密度统计结果表明,滑坡点密度随着危险性级别的升高而非常迅速的升高。
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2011-06-20
  • 修回日期:  2011-11-21
  • 刊出日期:  2012-06-25

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