冉洪流, 周本刚. 2004: 地表潜在断错位移的概率评价方法. 工程地质学报, 12(1): 93-97.
    引用本文: 冉洪流, 周本刚. 2004: 地表潜在断错位移的概率评价方法. 工程地质学报, 12(1): 93-97.
    RAN Hongliu, ZHOU Bengang. 2004: PROBABILITISTIC ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL GROUND OFFSET ALONG STRIKE-SLIP ENGINEERING ACTIVE FAULT. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 12(1): 93-97.
    Citation: RAN Hongliu, ZHOU Bengang. 2004: PROBABILITISTIC ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL GROUND OFFSET ALONG STRIKE-SLIP ENGINEERING ACTIVE FAULT. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 12(1): 93-97.

    地表潜在断错位移的概率评价方法

    PROBABILITISTIC ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL GROUND OFFSET ALONG STRIKE-SLIP ENGINEERING ACTIVE FAULT

    • 摘要: 目前跨活动断层的线状工程的抗断设防一般是以断层位错确定性评价为基础 ,考虑的是最大位错量 ,与抗御灾害的风险设计的实际要求不相符。本文将走滑断层上最大位错点的位置分布及最大位错点两侧的位错展布 ,与可产生地表断错位移的强震复发模型联合 ,构造出评估走滑活动断层各部位地表潜在断错位移的概率性评价方法。最后 ,以鲜水河走滑断裂中带西北部的松林口 -乾宁段为例 ,对其未来 10 0年潜在断错位移的危险性做出定量评估 ,可给出断层段上各点不同超越概率水平下的潜在位移。这一研究结果 ,可为跨断裂的线形工程进行抗御地表潜在断错位移的风险设计提供科学依据.

       

      Abstract: The current anti-offset design usually adopts the deterministic method of the maximum outburst offset on the fault, which cannot meet requirements of risk design for prevention of earthquake disasters. By combining the location of the maximum offset, the distribution of the offset along two sides of the maximum offset, and the recurrence model of strong earthquakes pertaining to the ground offset, authors introduced a method of probabilistic assessment to evaluate potential ground offset along the strike-slip active fault. Taking the Songlinkou-Qianning segment on Xianshuihe strike-slip fault zone as an example, the quantitative evaluation of the risk of potential offset in future 100a was conducted. The potential offsets along the active fault were assessed under different exceeding probabilistic levels. Such results could provide scientific guidelines for the risk assessment of the anti-offset of linear engineering structures across the active fault.

       

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