刘艳辉, 黄俊宝, 肖锐铧, 等. 2022. 基于随机森林的福建省区域滑坡灾害预警模型研究[J]. 工程地质学报, 30(3): 944-955. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0625.
    引用本文: 刘艳辉, 黄俊宝, 肖锐铧, 等. 2022. 基于随机森林的福建省区域滑坡灾害预警模型研究[J]. 工程地质学报, 30(3): 944-955. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0625.
    Liu Yanhui, Huang Junbao, Xiao Ruihua, et al. 2022. Study on early warning model for regional landslides based on random forest in Fujian Province[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 30(3): 944-955. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0625.
    Citation: Liu Yanhui, Huang Junbao, Xiao Ruihua, et al. 2022. Study on early warning model for regional landslides based on random forest in Fujian Province[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 30(3): 944-955. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2021-0625.

    基于随机森林的福建省区域滑坡灾害预警模型研究

    STUDY ON EARLY WARNING MODEL FOR REGIONAL LANDSLIDES BASED ON RANDOM FOREST IN FUJIAN PROVINCE

    • 摘要: 福建省滑坡灾害群发,点多面广,开展区域滑坡灾害预警业务是有效防灾减灾的重要手段,预警模型的科学性和有效性是预警业务的核心问题。传统区域滑坡灾害预警模型,受到滑坡诱发机理复杂、数据积累有限,以及大数据分析方法不足等限制,存在预警精度有限、精细化不足等问题。本文基于近9年地质与气象大数据,采用随机森林算法,构建了福建省区域滑坡灾害预警模型并开展实例校验。研究得出如下结论:①提出区域滑坡灾害训练样本集构建的优化方法,并构建了福建省区域滑坡灾害训练样本集,样本集包括地质环境、降雨等26个输入特征属性和1个输出特征属性,涵盖了福建省近9年(2010~2018年)全部样本数量达15 589个(其中:正样本3562个,负样本12 027个,正负样本比例约1 : 3.4); ②基于随机森林算法,对福建训练样本集进行学习训练、模型优化和模型存储。模型训练采用5折交叉验证法,采用贝叶斯优化算法进行模型参数优化,采用精确度、ROC曲线和AUC值等指标校验模型准确度和模型泛化能力。优化后的模型准确率和泛化能力均较好(准确率94.3%,AUC为0.954); ③选取2021年6月22日和28日的实际滑坡灾害发生情况,采用本文新提出的预警模型进行实况模拟运行,命中率均为100%。对比原显式统计模型预警结果,新模型命中率是原模型的6倍(6月22日)或相当(6月28日),新模型预警区内滑坡密度是原模型的1.6~1.7倍。初步验证表明基于随机森林的新模型优势明显,命中率更高,预警区面积更小,能够实现更加精准的预警。后续将继续跟踪研究区新发滑坡灾害情况,进行模型校验与修正完善。

       

      Abstract: Landslides occur in a large number of places in Fujian Province,China,so it is an important measure to carry out regional landslides warning,and the scientificity and effectiveness of the warning model is the key. Due to the complex of landslide mechanism,limited data accumulation,and insufficient big data method,etc. traditional regional landslides warning models have many problems,such as limited warning accuracy and lack of refinement. Based on the geological and meteorological big data in the past decade,using the random forest algorithm,the regional landslides warning model in Fujian Province was studied in this paper. Then,the case verification was carried out. (1)The building method of regional landslide training sample set was optimized,and the regional landslides training set of Fujian Province was constructed,which included 26 input characteristics and 1 output characteristic,covered nearly nine years in Fujian Province(2010~2018)total sample size of 15589(3562 positive samples and 12027 negative samples). (2)Based on the random forest algorithm,the training sample set was trained,optimized and stored. The model was trained with the five-fold cross-validation method,and model parameters were optimized with the Bayesian optimization algorithm. Then,the accuracy value,ROC curve and AUC value were used to verify the model accuracy and generalization ability. Finally,the optimized model had good accuracy and generalization ability(the accuracy value was 94.3%,and AUC was 0.954). (3)The actual landslides on June 22 and 28,2021 were selected to verify the new warning model. Then,verified result was that the hit ratio of new warning model were 100% in both June 22 and 28. Compared with the warning results of the original explicit statistical model,the hit ratio of the new model is 6 times(on June 22)or equivalent(on June 28)to that of the original model,and the landslide density in the warning area of the new model is 1.6 to 1.7 times to that of the original model. Therefore,the new model based on random forest has obvious advantages,which is the new model warning result has higher hit rate and smaller warning area. In other words,the new model can achieve a more accurate warning. In the follow-up,new landslides in the study area will be tracked to verify and modify the model.

       

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