杨川,林日成,季建勇,等. 2024. 基于图深度学习与北斗监测的边坡位移预测研究[J]. 工程地质学报,32(2):612-622. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2022-0053.
    引用本文: 杨川,林日成,季建勇,等. 2024. 基于图深度学习与北斗监测的边坡位移预测研究[J]. 工程地质学报,32(2):612-622. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2022-0053.
    Yang Chuan, Lin Richeng, Ji Jianyong, et al. 2024. Slope displacement prediction research based on the graph deep learning and Beidou monitoring[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 32(2): 612-622. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2022-0053.
    Citation: Yang Chuan, Lin Richeng, Ji Jianyong, et al. 2024. Slope displacement prediction research based on the graph deep learning and Beidou monitoring[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 32(2): 612-622. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2022-0053.

    基于图深度学习与北斗监测的边坡位移预测研究

    SLOPE DISPLACEMENT PREDICTION RESEARCH BASED ON THE GRAPH DEEP LEARNING AND BEIDOU MONITORING

    • 摘要: 位移预测是边坡地质灾害监测预警的关键,本文以温州绕城高速公路边坡为例,提出了一种新的基于图深度学习与北斗监测的边坡多因子位移预测方法。首先基于北斗高精度监测点位的空间位置对整体监测体系的图结构进行建模,构建图节点之间的邻接矩阵。再对北斗高精度位移、降雨量、地下水位与土壤含水率多因子监测数据进行去粗差、插值与归一化等时序数据处理,并进行时空相关性分析,结果表明位移主要受连续两个月的降雨量、三级边坡的地下水位与土壤含水率的影响。将最先进的基于图深度学习的GTS(Graph for Time Series)预测模型引入边坡位移预测中,提出适用于北斗高精度边坡变形监测的GTS-BDS位移预测模型。当预测时长为1 h时,其均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)与平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)指标评价分别达到0.301、0.154与3.5%,均优于LSTM与T-GCN等模型。本文所提出的位移预测方法充分利用了北斗高精度及其他传感器监测点位之间的空间拓扑与监测数据的时序特征,从整体监测体系的角度提升边坡位移预测的准确率与可靠性,在边坡安全预警中具有良好的应用前景。

       

      Abstract: Displacement prediction is vital to slope failure monitoring and early warning. We took a slope in Wenzhou Belt Highway as a case and proposed a novel multivariate slope displacement prediction method based on graph deep learning and Beidou monitoring. First, we modeled the graph structure of the entire displacement monitoring system based on the spatial distance of Beidou high-precision monitoring points and built the adjacency matrix of graph nodes. Then, we performed time series data processing, including denoising, interpolation, and normalization on Beidou high-precision displacement, accumulative rainfall, groundwater table, and soil moisture content, and applied multivariate spatial-temporal correlativity analysis. The analysis reveals that the displacement is mainly controlled by the two consecutive months' rainfall, groundwater table, and soil moisture content in the Grade Ⅲ slope. Lastly, we introduced the state-of-the-art graph deep learning GTS(Graph for Time Series) model into the slope displacement prediction and built the GTS-BDS model specifically for Beidou high-precision slope displacement monitoring. The GTS-BDS model outperforms others such as LSTM and T-GCN in Root Mean Square Error(RMSE, 0.301), Mean Absolute Error(MAE, 0.154), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE, 3.5%)evaluation metrics with a prediction horizon of 1 hour. The displacement prediction method proposed in this study takes full advantage of the spatial topology between monitoring points and temporal features of the monitoring data, thus improving the accuracy and reliability of displacement prediction from the perspective of the entire displacement monitoring system. The new method may have a favorable application in slope failure early warning.

       

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