倪吉吉, 沙鹏, 王天佐, 等. 2024. 雅砻江干流沿线地质灾害空间分布规律及风险性评价[J]. 工程地质学报, 32(3): 876-888. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0074.
    引用本文: 倪吉吉, 沙鹏, 王天佐, 等. 2024. 雅砻江干流沿线地质灾害空间分布规律及风险性评价[J]. 工程地质学报, 32(3): 876-888. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0074.
    Ni Jiji, Sha Peng, Wang Tianzuo, et al. 2024. Risk assessment and spatial distribution of geological hazards in Yalong River Basin[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 32(3): 876-888. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0074.
    Citation: Ni Jiji, Sha Peng, Wang Tianzuo, et al. 2024. Risk assessment and spatial distribution of geological hazards in Yalong River Basin[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 32(3): 876-888. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0074.

    雅砻江干流沿线地质灾害空间分布规律及风险性评价

    RISK ASSESSMENT AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS IN YALONG RIVER BASIN

    • 摘要: 雅砻江流域水电开发是西部水能资源开发的重要组成部分。受青藏高原急剧隆升、活动断裂、河流快速下切和降雨作用的影响,雅砻江流域内崩塌、滑坡等不良地质灾害极其发育。开展雅砻江流域沿线的地质灾害风险性评价对水电工程建设具有重要意义。本文根据雅砻江干流地质环境与沿线276处滑坡与崩塌灾害点数据,选取地形坡度、坡向、起伏度、高程、工程地质岩组、断裂带密度、与雅砻江干流距离、PGA、年平均降雨量等9个评价因子。利用频率比法和层次分析法计算各影响因子指标赋值和权重值,通过ArcGIS平台完成地质灾害易发性评价。在此基础上选取人口密度、与水电站距离、地均GDP、土地类型、与道路距离5个因素开展承灾体易损性分析,最后结合易发性和易损性评价完成地质灾害风险性评价。评价结果表明:雅砻江流域中上游受地质构造、工程地质岩组及人类活动的影响,地质灾害易发性较大,极高风险区和高风险区主要集中在水电站坝址附近。下游区域出现高风险区主要受人口密度和经济影响,但地质灾害易发性较小。本次易发性评价精度达到91.57%,评价模型适用于雅砻江流域,可为雅砻江流域地质灾害风险评价与水电工程规划提供重要参考。

       

      Abstract: Hydropower development in the Yalong River Basin is a crucial component of the development of hydropower resources in Western China. Adverse geological disasters, such as rock collapse and landslides, are highly prevalent in the Yalong River flow area due to influences like the rapid uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, active faults, rapid river downcutting, and rainfall. Assessing the risk of geological hazards along the Yalong River is vital for hydropower project construction. This work aims to assess the risk of regional geological hazards along the mainstream of the Yalong River. Nine evaluation factors, including terrain slope, slope direction, undulation, elevation, engineering geological rock group, density of fault zones, distance from the mainstream of the Yalong River, PGA(Peak Ground Acceleration), and annual average rainfall, were selected based on data from 276 disaster points involving landslides and collapses along the river's mainstream. The frequency ratio method and analytic hierarchy process were employed to calculate the index assignment and weight value of each factor. Subsequently, vulnerability assessment of geological disasters was conducted using ArcGIS. The vulnerability analysis of the disaster-bearing bodies involved selecting five factors: population density, distance from the hydropower station, average GDP, land type, and distance from the road. The risk assessment of regional geological hazards was completed by combining susceptibility and vulnerability assessments. The evaluation results indicate that the middle and upper reaches of the Yalong River Basin are primarily affected by geological structure and engineering geological rock groups, with high-risk areas mainly located near the dam sites of hydropower stations. In the downstream area, high-risk areas are influenced mainly by population density and economy, though susceptibility to geological disasters is relatively lower. The accuracy of this susceptibility assessment reached 91.57%. This assessment model is applicable to the Yalong River Basin and provides an important reference for geological disaster risk assessment and hydropower project planning in the region.

       

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