基于综合遥感技术的灾害编目图动态更新在灾害易发性评价中的影响特征研究

    DYNAMIC UPDATE OF HAZARD CATALOGING MAP BASED ON INTEGRATED REMOTE SENSING TECHNOLOGY AND ITS INFLUENCE IN HAZARD SUSCEPTIBILITY EVALUATION

    • 摘要: 编目图是地质灾害易发性评价的基础。编目图的动态更新是实现地质灾害动态评价的关键。考虑到以地质灾害防灾减灾为目的的编目图中掺杂有较多的人为因素(如往往围绕居民点和道路等人类工程活动区进行调查和编目),本文首先提出了基于综合遥感技术进行编目图动态更新的方法。随后研究了编目图动态更新在灾害易发性评价中的影响特征。本文以云南省德钦县为研究区域,考虑地质灾害隐患的隐蔽性,首先综合地表形变InSAR监测获得的形变集中区和光学遥感解译成果,对研究区地质灾害的编目图进行了动态更新;其次选取了高程、坡度、距河流距离、距断裂距离、距道路距离和工程岩组作为易发性评价因子,采用信息量法和证据权法,分别基于原灾害编目图和动态更新后的灾害编目图对研究区地质灾害进行易发性评价与分区。利用预测性检验曲线对易发性评价的结果进行了验证和对比分析,结果表明:(1)动态更新编目图后的易发性评价结果具有更高的可靠性,模型预测性可提高8% ~9%。(2)不同评价模型对编目图动态更新的评价效果响应有所差异,本文中对于研究区的易发性分区结果,两种评价方法的精度大小为信息量法>证据权法。(3)根据信息量法基于更新后灾害编目图所得的德钦县易发性分区结果为:低易发区面积为2361.83 km2,占比为31.77%,中易发区面积为1952.58 km2,占比为26.27%,高易发区面积为1986.09 km2,占比为26.72%,极高易发区面积为1132.92 km2,占比为15.24%。

       

      Abstract: Cataloging maps form the basis of geological hazard susceptibility evaluation. The dynamic update of cataloging maps is crucial for realizing the dynamic evaluation of geological hazards. Recognizing the significant human factors involved in cataloging maps for geological disaster prevention and reduction, this paper proposes a method of dynamically updating cataloging maps based on comprehensive remote sensing technology. It studies the influence of dynamic updates of cataloging maps on disaster susceptibility evaluation, with Deqin County of Yunnan Province chosen as the research area. Initially, the cataloged map of geological disasters in the study area is dynamically updated based on the deformation concentration area obtained through InSAR monitoring and optical inter pretation results. Secondly, we select elevation, slope, distance from the river, distance from faults, distance from roads, and engineering rock group as susceptibility evaluation factors. We employ the information content method and the weight of evidence method to evaluate and partition the susceptibility of geological disasters in the study area based on the original disaster cataloging map and dynamically updated disaster cataloging map. This paper uses the test curve to verify and compare the susceptibility evaluation results. The results indicate that: (1)The susceptibility evaluation results after dynamic updating of the cataloging map have higher reliability, with reliability potentially increasing by 8% to 9%; (2)Different evaluation models exhibit varied responses to the dynamic update of catalogs. The accuracy of the two evaluation methods in this paper is as follows: information content method>weight of evidence method based on the updated disaster cataloging map. (3)According to the information content method based on the updated disaster cataloging map of Deqin County, prone zoning is as follows: the area of low prone area is 2361.83 km2, accounting for 31.77%; the area of medium prone area is 1952.58 km2, accounting for 26.27%; the area of high prone area is 1986.09 km2, accounting for 26.72%; and the area of very highprone area is 1132.92 km2, accounting for 15.24%.

       

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