王娅美, 张紫昭, 张艳阳, 等. 2023. 基于多种组合模型的新疆巩留县滑坡危险性评价研究[J]. 工程地质学报, 31(4): 1375-1393. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0219.
    引用本文: 王娅美, 张紫昭, 张艳阳, 等. 2023. 基于多种组合模型的新疆巩留县滑坡危险性评价研究[J]. 工程地质学报, 31(4): 1375-1393. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0219.
    Wang Yamei, Zhang Zizhao, Zhang Yanyang, et al. 2023. Landslide risk assessment of Gongliu County in Xinjiang based on multiple combination models[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 31(4): 1375-1393. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0219.
    Citation: Wang Yamei, Zhang Zizhao, Zhang Yanyang, et al. 2023. Landslide risk assessment of Gongliu County in Xinjiang based on multiple combination models[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 31(4): 1375-1393. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2023-0219.

    基于多种组合模型的新疆巩留县滑坡危险性评价研究

    LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT OF GONGLIU COUNTY IN XINJIANG BASED ON MULTIPLE COMBINATION MODELS

    • 摘要: 新疆巩留县广泛发育冻融降雨型滑坡地质灾害,对其现有的研究多考虑降水,而缺乏温度影响的研究,为此,本文特增加了温度因子来进行巩留县滑坡灾害危险性评价。基于巩留县已发生的682个滑坡灾害点,选取坡度、起伏度、坡向、曲率、温度、距断层距离、距河流距离、距道路距离、工程地质岩组等9个评价因子。采用信息量模型(I)、确定性系数模型(CF)、信息量模型+逻辑回归模型(I+LR)以及确定性系数模型+逻辑回归模型(CF+LR)等4种模型对巩留县滑坡危险性进行了评价,划分为极高、高、中和低4个危险等级分区并进行了精度检验与现场实际验证。结果表明:(1)温度对滑坡有较大的触发作用;(2)耦合模型极高、高危险性分区面积明显低于单一模型极高、高危险性分区面积,其中CF+LR模型的极高、高危险性分区面积最小,低危险性分区面积最大;(3)4种模型ROC精度检验AUC值分别为0.889、0.893、0.895和0.900,均能较为客观地评价巩留县滑坡危险性。CF+LR模型精度最高,且经局部地区现场检验,CF+LR模型评价结果与实际情况也最为相符,研究成果对新疆地区巩留县滑坡地质灾害的预防和治理具有一定的借鉴意义。

       

      Abstract: Freeze-thaw rainfall landslide geological disasters are widely developed in Gongliu County, Xinjiang. The existing research in Gongliu County mostly considers the influence of precipitation but lacks on the influence of temperature. Therefore, the temperature factor was added to evaluate the risk of landslide disaster in Gongliu County in this study. Based on the 682 landslide disaster points that occurred in Gongliu County, nine evaluation factors are selected. They are slope angle, undulation, slope direction, curvature, temperature, distance from fault, distance from river, distance from road and engineering geological rock group. The information model(I), the deterministic coefficient model(CF), the information model+logistic regression model(I+LR) and the deterministic coefficient model+logistic regression model(CF+LR)are used to evaluate the landslide risk in Gongliu County. The risk is divided into four risk levels: extremely high, high, medium and low. The accuracy test and field verification are carried out. The results show that: (1)Temperature has a great triggering effect on landslide. (2)The extremely high and high risk zoning area of the coupled model is significantly lower than that of the single model. The extremely high and high risk zoning area of the CF+LR model is the smallest, and the low risk zoning area is the largest. (3)The AUC values of ROC accuracy test of the four models are 0.889, 0.893, 0.895 and 0.9, respectively, which can objectively evaluate the landslide risk of Gongliu County. The results also show that the CF+LR model has the highest accuracy, and the evaluation results of the CF+LR model are most consistent with the actual situation after field inspection in some areas. The research results have certain reference significance for the prevention and control of landslide geological disasters in Gongliu County, Xinjiang.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回