Abstract: Toppling is a prevalent form of instability in anti-dip rock slopes, and its deformation and failure are influenced by multiple factors. In order to investigate the extent of influence exerted by various factors on the tipping deformation of anti-dip slopes and their control over the deformation mode, this study focuses on the anti-dip rock slope in the middle and upper reaches of the Lancang River as a research subject. A systematic framework is established for analyzing toppling deformation in anti-dip slopes, and the sensitivity of different influencing factors is examined through discrete element numerical simulation tests combined with an improved grey correlation analysis theory. The geometric model prone to overturning deformation of anti-inclined slope in the study area is predicted based on the support vector regression(SVR)theory, incorporating slope geometric feature parameters. The results indicate that: (1)The geometric characteristic parameters of the anti-dip slopes have the highest level of sensitivity, followed by horizontal tectonic stress, while the mechanical parameters of the rock mass demonstrate the weakest sensitivity; (2)The deformation amount and depth of anti-dip slopes exhibit a positive correlation with the upper and lower slope angles, while the deformation depth demonstrates a positive correlation with the dip angle of rock layers. However, the deformation amount initially increases and subsequently decreases as the dip angle of rock layers increases; (3)Four deformation patterns have been identified within the study area, namely stable slope, potential deformation slope, shallow toppling slope and deep-seated toppling slope; (4)In the study area, slopes with a dip angle of less than 57°generally exhibit stability; shallow toppling deformation may occur when the dip angle exceeds 57°, deep-seated toppling deformation becomes possible beyond 63°, and at an inclination of 81°, the slope is highly susceptible to toppling deformation. The research findings offer a dependable theoretical framework for the early identification and hazard assessment of slope deformations in the field.