陈世泷, 孟庆凯, 戴勇, 等. 2024. 极端气候影响下中巴公路沿线崩滑灾害危险性评价[J]. 工程地质学报, 32(3): 1010-1019. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2024-0102.
    引用本文: 陈世泷, 孟庆凯, 戴勇, 等. 2024. 极端气候影响下中巴公路沿线崩滑灾害危险性评价[J]. 工程地质学报, 32(3): 1010-1019. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2024-0102.
    Chen Shilong, Meng Qingkai, Dai Yong, et al. 2024. Hazard assessment of rockfall and landslide on the Karakoram Highway under the influence of extreme climate[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 32(3): 1010-1019. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2024-0102.
    Citation: Chen Shilong, Meng Qingkai, Dai Yong, et al. 2024. Hazard assessment of rockfall and landslide on the Karakoram Highway under the influence of extreme climate[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 32(3): 1010-1019. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2024-0102.

    极端气候影响下中巴公路沿线崩滑灾害危险性评价

    HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF ROCKFALL AND LANDSLIDE ON THE KARAKORAM HIGHWAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXTREME CLIMATE

    • 摘要: 为探究极端气候对中巴公路沿线崩滑灾害影响,本文选择ERA5再分析数据结合灾害数据库,从强度、持续时间、频率3方面研究日最高温的年最大值、日最低温的年最小值、雨天日降水强度等8个极端气候指数与崩滑灾害关联关系,选择2个最具代表性气候指数作为诱发因素构建危险性评价体系,开展崩滑灾害危险性评价。研究结果表明:(1)中巴公路沿线区域整体表现为温差幅度变大,短历时与持续强降雨增高趋势,塔什库尔干东部和帕苏—吉尔吉特—奇拉斯区段表现为更短的冰冻天数时间,更大的雨天日降水强度,更高的极端高温事件频率;(2)近30余年,崩滑灾害高密集区段(帕苏—吉尔吉特—奇拉斯)日最高温的年最大值、日最低温的年最小值、雨天日降水强度在2010年、2018年达到最高,近10 a极端温度波动趋势减弱;(3)崩滑灾害高、极高危险区主要分布在塔什库尔干—红其拉甫东部、斯考特—帕苏—吉尔吉特—奇拉斯区段。该研究结果可为保障中巴公路沿线工程安全和开展风险预测提供科学依据和重要参考。

       

      Abstract: To explore the impact of extreme climate events on rockfall and landslides on the Karakoram Highway, ERA5 reanalysis data covering from 1988 to 2022 involving a disaster database were utilized. The relationship between disaster spatial distribution and eight extreme climate indices was analyzed, including the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, minimum value of daily minimum temperature, and Simple Precipitation Intensity Index. Two typical climate indices were selected as triggering factors integrated with other traditional factors to construct the hazard assessment framework. The information quantity method was employed to generate a hazard zonation map, revealing the probability of rockfall and landslides. The results showed that: (1)The entire area on the Karakoram Highway generally exhibited an increasing trend in temperature difference, short-duration, and continuous heavy rainfall, specifically the shorter freezing days, the higher daily precipitation intensity, and more frequent extreme high-temperature events in the eastern Taxkorgan and the Passu-Gilgit-Chilas sections; (2)Over the past 30 years, the section with the highest distribution density of disasters(Passu-Gilgit-Chilas section) showed that the peak of the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, minimum value of daily minimum temperature, and Simple Precipitation Intensity Index occurred in 2010 and 2018, while the fluctuation trend of extreme temperatures has weakened in the past decade; (3)Areas with high and very high hazards are mainly distributed in the eastern Taxkorgan-Khunjerab and the Scott-Passu-Gilgit-Chilas sections. Our research results provide a scientific basis and reference for ensuring engineering safety and conducting risk predictions on the Karakoram Highway in the future.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回