沈玲玲, 刘连友, 许冲, 王静璞. 2016: 基于多模型的滑坡易发性评价以甘肃岷县地震滑坡为例. 工程地质学报, 24(1): 19-28. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.01.003
    引用本文: 沈玲玲, 刘连友, 许冲, 王静璞. 2016: 基于多模型的滑坡易发性评价以甘肃岷县地震滑坡为例. 工程地质学报, 24(1): 19-28. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.01.003
    SHEN Lingling, LIU Lianyou, XU Chong, WANG Jingpu. 2016: MULTI-MODELS BASED LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY EVALUATIONILLUSTRATED WITH LANDSLIDES TRIGGERED BY MINXIAN EARTHQUAKE. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 24(1): 19-28. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.01.003
    Citation: SHEN Lingling, LIU Lianyou, XU Chong, WANG Jingpu. 2016: MULTI-MODELS BASED LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY EVALUATIONILLUSTRATED WITH LANDSLIDES TRIGGERED BY MINXIAN EARTHQUAKE. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 24(1): 19-28. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.01.003

    基于多模型的滑坡易发性评价以甘肃岷县地震滑坡为例

    MULTI-MODELS BASED LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY EVALUATIONILLUSTRATED WITH LANDSLIDES TRIGGERED BY MINXIAN EARTHQUAKE

    • 摘要: 2013年7月22日,甘肃省岷县漳县交界处发生了MS6.6级地震(岷县地震),本文以这次地震烈度Ⅷ度区为研究区,根据地震前后遥感影像解译出来的2330个地震滑坡数据,以坡度、坡向、水系、岩性和断层为因子图层,分别应用模糊逻辑法,信息量模型及Shannon熵改进的信息量模型,对研究区的地震滑坡易发性进行评价。结果表明: 1滑坡的高易发性地区位于研究区的中间部分,以及水系0~50m这一缓冲区范围内,离水系越近滑坡易发性等级越高; 2应用ROC曲线对3个模型的易发性评价结果进行比较,信息量模型和Shannon熵改进的信息量模型的AUC值分别为0.8488, 0.8502; 模糊逻辑模型的AUC值为0.7640,表明前两个模型的表现较好,而模糊逻辑模型相对来说表现一般; 3通过对比3个模型中各等级易发性所占的面积比例和各等级易发性中滑坡数目占总数比例,表明Shannon熵改进后的模型更适用于灾害风险评价以及应急风险管理等实际应用。

       

      Abstract: On July 22, 2013, an earthquake of MS6.6 occurred at the junction area of the Minxian and Zhangxian Counties, Gansu Province, China. The earthquake had triggered at least 2330 landslides according to the previous studies. This paper takes seismic intensity Ⅷ zone of the earthquake as the study area. Based on the earthquake induced-landslide inventory interpreted from field investigations and visual interpretation of high-resolution satellite images before and after earthquake, five influence factors of slope, aspect, drainage, lithology and fault are selected. Then the landslide susceptibility of the study area is evaluated under GIS platform by applying fuzzy logic model, information value model and Shannon's entropy integrated information value model separately. Results show: (1)Landslides are prone to occur in the central part of the study area. When closer to drainage, it is more susceptible to landslides. By counting landslides in buffer zones of drainage, it finds that majority landslides occurred in 0~50m zone. The percentage of landslides in 0~100m buffer zone is up to 50% of all. (2)The AUC values of three models are 0.8488(Information value model), 0.8502(Shannon's entropy integrated information value model), 0.7640(Fuzzy logic model). It indicates well performances of information value model and Shannon's entropy integrated information value model, and the modest performance of fuzzy logic model. (3)By comparing the areas of each susceptibility levels and landslides proportions in each susceptibility levels of three models, it finds that each level's area ration in Shannon's entropy integrated information value model tends to normal distribution, and the model also has the highest landslide rations in very high and high susceptibility levels. Shannon's entropy integrated information value model increases each unit's information value which leads to a more obvious result. It demonstrates that Shannon's entropy integrated information value model is more suitable for disaster risk evaluation and emergency risk management.

       

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