Abstract: Accurate predictionon surface deformation in mining area provides reliable guidance for safe and effective mining. Due to the complexity of geological conditions, in-situ stress and mining methods, surface deformation prediction generally turned out to be difficult. Taking Jingerquan mine in Hami City, Xinjiang Province as an instance, it adopted the shallow-hole shrinkage mining method at the previous stage and severely disturbed the overlying rock mass. Therefore, in the later stage, it employs the filling method instead. Considering the unfavorable geological conditions of the mine, we applied the random medium theory in analyzing the surface deformation. And based on the particular orebody structure, we established a reasonable mathematical model. According to the monitoring results, the surface deformation parameters were determined using back analysis method, and thereby, the surface settlement curve at the final mining stage was obtained. Besides, combining the surface deformation tendency, the mechanism and feature of deformation in different stages were investigated. It is suggested that the research findings in Jingerquan mine could provide some reference for similar metal mines.