曹洪洋, 任晓莹. 2016: 基于当日和累计降雨量的区域降雨型滑坡预警研究*. 工程地质学报, 24(s1): 636-640. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.s1.092
    引用本文: 曹洪洋, 任晓莹. 2016: 基于当日和累计降雨量的区域降雨型滑坡预警研究*. 工程地质学报, 24(s1): 636-640. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.s1.092
    CAO Hongyang, REN Xiaoying. 2016: STUDY ON REGIONAL RAINFALL-INDUCED-LANDSLIDES PREDICTION BASED ON DAILY AND ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 24(s1): 636-640. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.s1.092
    Citation: CAO Hongyang, REN Xiaoying. 2016: STUDY ON REGIONAL RAINFALL-INDUCED-LANDSLIDES PREDICTION BASED ON DAILY AND ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 24(s1): 636-640. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.s1.092

    基于当日和累计降雨量的区域降雨型滑坡预警研究*

    STUDY ON REGIONAL RAINFALL-INDUCED-LANDSLIDES PREDICTION BASED ON DAILY AND ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION

    • 摘要: 选择合适的降雨型滑坡气象因子有利于提高预测精度,详细研究了四川省雅安市雨城区滑坡和降雨数据,利用不同组的数据进行回归分析,发现前期几日降雨量与滑坡的相关性不大,确定气象因子选取为当日降雨量和累积降雨量,讨论了累积降雨量中衰减系数的选取,确定为0.9。然后利用样本数据中的120组数据进行二元逻辑回归,得到了研究区的滑坡灾害概率预测方程。在此基础上制作了当日降雨量与累计降雨量关系散点图,得到了研究区降雨滑坡的临界表达式。最后选用5个降雨事件滑坡和5个未降雨事件滑坡进行验证,结果完全符合要求,说明此模型的准确性较高。综合表明这种以当日和累计降雨量为自变量的回归模型是一种行之有效的预测方法,可为降雨型滑坡预测提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Intraday and cumulative rainfalls were chosen as the meteorological factors of the prediction model through comparing the relationship between the landslides and the precipitation of the early days. The attenuation coefficient of cumulative rainfall was 0.9. The binary logistic regression prediction method is established based on 120 rainfall-induced-landslides data in the Yucheng district, Yaan city in Sichuang province. Analysis is done with the independent variables of the intraday and cumulative rainfall and probability prediction equation is achieved. On this basis, a critical expression of rainfall-induced-landslides is obtained through the scatter plot. The test samples of 5 rainfall-induced-landslides and 5 non-landslides reach up 100 percent accuracy. The predictive values of the ten tests samples are in line with requirements. The prediction of the rainfall-induced-landslides can be provided by forecast equation and critical expression.

       

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