谢媛华, 李德营, 徐勇, 连志鹏. 2016: 湖北省宣恩县罗家沟滑坡风险评价实例研究. 工程地质学报, 24(s1): 641-648. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.s1.093
    引用本文: 谢媛华, 李德营, 徐勇, 连志鹏. 2016: 湖北省宣恩县罗家沟滑坡风险评价实例研究. 工程地质学报, 24(s1): 641-648. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.s1.093
    XIE Yuanhua, LI Deying, XU Yong, LIAN Zhipeng. 2016: RISK ASSESSMENT OF LUOJIAGOU LANDSLIDE IN XUANEN CITY, HUBEI. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 24(s1): 641-648. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.s1.093
    Citation: XIE Yuanhua, LI Deying, XU Yong, LIAN Zhipeng. 2016: RISK ASSESSMENT OF LUOJIAGOU LANDSLIDE IN XUANEN CITY, HUBEI. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 24(s1): 641-648. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.s1.093

    湖北省宣恩县罗家沟滑坡风险评价实例研究

    RISK ASSESSMENT OF LUOJIAGOU LANDSLIDE IN XUANEN CITY, HUBEI

    • 摘要: 近年来大比例尺单体滑坡灾害风险研究是滑坡研究领域的重点及难点,本文以湖北省宣恩县罗家沟滑坡为例,研究了不同降雨工况下(10年、20年、50年)的滑坡破坏概率,在承灾体详细现场调查的基础上,采用定性方法确定滑坡影响范围内不同区域承灾体易损性,定量计算了不同降雨工况下滑坡人员、经济总风险,并利用年超越概率方法计算了滑坡人员与经济的年风险值;最后结合遥感影像数据,以ARCGIS系统为平台制作三维数字模型直观展示了滑坡不同降雨工况下房屋、人员风险的变化情况。结果显示,滑坡风险值在10年和20年一遇暴雨工况下相近,50年一遇暴雨工况下,滑坡破坏概率增大,滑坡总风险值随之增大。

       

      Abstract: the research of large-scale landslide risk assessment is a very difficult issue in landslide research in recent years. Luojiagou landslide was taken as an example in order to investigate individual landslide risk. The landslide stability was simulated in different rainfall return period(10, 20, 50 years) to calculate landslide probability. The vulnerability of elements in risk was determined by qualitative method based on detailed field investigation. The total risk of economic risk and personnel risk were analyzed quantitatively under different rainfall conditions, and the annual economic risk and individual risk was calculated quantitatively by exceeding probability method. Based on RS data of the landslide field, the risk change of buildings and personnel was directly shown in the 3D model in ARCGIS platform. The result showed that the value of landslide risk was similar in the conditions of 10-year and 20-year rainfall conditions, while the failure probability of landslide and the value of landslide risk increased in the condition of 50-year rainfall.

       

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