吴钟腾, 叶龙珍, 郑之望. 2016: 基于运动学原理的滑坡运动距离预测方法研究. 工程地质学报, 24(s1): 673-680. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.s1.098
    引用本文: 吴钟腾, 叶龙珍, 郑之望. 2016: 基于运动学原理的滑坡运动距离预测方法研究. 工程地质学报, 24(s1): 673-680. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.s1.098
    WU Zhongteng, YE Longzhen, ZHENG Zhiwang. 2016: STUDY ON PREDICTION METHOD OF LANDSLIDES MOVEMENT DISTANCES BASED ON KINEMATIC. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 24(s1): 673-680. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.s1.098
    Citation: WU Zhongteng, YE Longzhen, ZHENG Zhiwang. 2016: STUDY ON PREDICTION METHOD OF LANDSLIDES MOVEMENT DISTANCES BASED ON KINEMATIC. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 24(s1): 673-680. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.s1.098

    基于运动学原理的滑坡运动距离预测方法研究

    STUDY ON PREDICTION METHOD OF LANDSLIDES MOVEMENT DISTANCES BASED ON KINEMATIC

    • 摘要: 本文基于滑坡自身形态特征以及场地因素,运用运动学原理推导出滑坡滑动距离预测计算公式,并通过收集44例典型降雨型滑坡基础数据,对该计算模型进行结果和过程两种方法的非线性拟合,最后,利用实例滑坡对计算模型进行对比分析及适用性检验。结果表明:推导的运动学公式计算结果与44例典型降雨型滑坡实际滑动距离经过结果和过程拟合后,其相关系数分别为0.926和0.928,拟合结果较好;利用推导的理论公式计算红桃山滑坡的滑动距离为83.16m,其计算结果比实际滑动距离89.37m小,绝对误差6.21m,相对误差6.95%,采用结果拟合方法后滑体的滑动距离与实际值的绝对误差6.07m,相对误差6.80%,而过程拟合则与实际值的绝对误差3.52m,相对误差3.94%,表明公式经拟合后适用性良好。该研究成果对滑坡运动距离的预测提供一种新途径。

       

      Abstract: In this paper, based on taking full account of the landslide site features its own characteristics, then derived prediction formula of landslide movement distance based on kinematics, and collected 44 cases of typical rainfall landslide basic data as sample to carry out nonlinear fitting about this model with two methods of the results and processes. Finally, making use of landslide example to carry out comparative analysis and suitability testing with model. The result shows: The result is well and its correlation coefficients were 0.926 and 0.928 after fitting about the formula result and actual result, the distance of Hongtaoshan landslide is 83.16m using derived theoretical formula, which is smaller than the actual sliding distance that is 89.37m, which the absolute error is 6.21m, the relative error is 6.95%,after result fitting the value of landslide distance is 6.07m smaller than actual and the relative error is 6.80%.therefore after process fitting is 3.52m, the relative error is 3.94%.It showed the formula have a excellent applicability after fitting. The research results provides a new way about distance prediction of landslide movement.

       

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