杨帆, 许强, 范宣梅, 叶微. 2019: 基于时间序列与人工蜂群支持向量机的滑坡位移预测研究. 工程地质学报, 27(4): 880-889. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017-256
    引用本文: 杨帆, 许强, 范宣梅, 叶微. 2019: 基于时间序列与人工蜂群支持向量机的滑坡位移预测研究. 工程地质学报, 27(4): 880-889. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017-256
    YANG Fan, XU Qiang, FAN Xuanmei, YE Wei. 2019: PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDE DISPLACEMENT TIME SERIES BASED ON SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION MACHINE WITH ARTIFICIAL BEE COLONY ALGORITHM. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(4): 880-889. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017-256
    Citation: YANG Fan, XU Qiang, FAN Xuanmei, YE Wei. 2019: PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDE DISPLACEMENT TIME SERIES BASED ON SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION MACHINE WITH ARTIFICIAL BEE COLONY ALGORITHM. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 27(4): 880-889. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017-256

    基于时间序列与人工蜂群支持向量机的滑坡位移预测研究

    PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDE DISPLACEMENT TIME SERIES BASED ON SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION MACHINE WITH ARTIFICIAL BEE COLONY ALGORITHM

    • 摘要: 总结以往滑坡预测方法存在的诸多不足,针对滑坡监测位移-时间曲线特点,本文提出了一种基于时间序列的人工蜂群算法(ABC)与支持向量回归机(SVR)相结合的滑坡位移预测方法。以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例,通过对滑坡位移、降雨、库水位等因素的分析,研究影响滑坡位移变化的因素。用时间序列加法模型和移动平均法将滑坡位移分解为趋势项和周期项。以多项式最小二乘法拟合滑坡位移趋势项,用人工蜂群支持向量机模型对滑坡位移周期项进行训练和预测。通过灰色系统关联分析法计算多项因子与滑坡位移周期项之间的关联性。最终的滑坡总位移预测值为周期项预测值与趋势项预测值之和。与BP神经网络、PSO-SVR模型方法相比,该方法在滑坡位移预测中有更高的精度,在防灾减灾工作中有较好的推广应用前景。

       

      Abstract: A method of landslide displacement prediction based on time series analysis model is proposed. It combines artificial bee colony algorithm(ABC)with support vector regression machine(SVR). The existing problems of landslide displacement prediction methods are summarized. We select Baishuihe landslide in The Gorges Reservoir area as the research object. We study the influence of landslide displacement, rainfall, reservoir water level and other factors on the change of landslide displacement with time. Firstly, the landslide displacement is decomposed into a trend term and a periodic term by time series addition model and moving average method. We use the polynomial least square method to fit and predict the trend term of landslide displacement. Then we use artificial bee colony support vector machine model to train and predict the periodic term of landslide displacement. In this paper, seven factors affecting the displacement of periodic terms are selected for the analysis. We use the grey system correlation analysis method to calculate the correlation degree between each factor and the displacement of the same period term. The total displacement prediction value of landslide is the sum of trend and periodic displacement prediction values. Compared with BP neural network and PSO-SVR model, this method has higher accuracy in landslide displacement prediction, and has better application prospects in disaster prevention and mitigation.

       

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