李莎, 张云, 于军, 龚绪龙, 卢毅. 2018: 基于多因素叠加计算权重法的苏锡常地裂缝危险性预测. 工程地质学报, 26(4): 978-988. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017-301
    引用本文: 李莎, 张云, 于军, 龚绪龙, 卢毅. 2018: 基于多因素叠加计算权重法的苏锡常地裂缝危险性预测. 工程地质学报, 26(4): 978-988. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017-301
    LI Sha, ZHANG Yun, YU Jun, GONG Xulong, LU Yi. 2018: RISK PREDICTION OF GROUND FISSURES IN SU-XI-CHANG CITIES BASED ON MULTI-FACTOR OVERLAY METHOD. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 26(4): 978-988. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017-301
    Citation: LI Sha, ZHANG Yun, YU Jun, GONG Xulong, LU Yi. 2018: RISK PREDICTION OF GROUND FISSURES IN SU-XI-CHANG CITIES BASED ON MULTI-FACTOR OVERLAY METHOD. JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 26(4): 978-988. DOI: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2017-301

    基于多因素叠加计算权重法的苏锡常地裂缝危险性预测

    RISK PREDICTION OF GROUND FISSURES IN SU-XI-CHANG CITIES BASED ON MULTI-FACTOR OVERLAY METHOD

    • 摘要: 由于长期过量开采地下水,苏州、无锡和常州(苏锡常)的局部地区地裂缝发育,在深层地下水禁采十多年后的今天有些地裂缝还在发展。地裂缝的发育及发展受到诸多因素的影响,其具体力学机制尚不明确。为了查明影响地裂缝发育的因素、确定各因素对地裂缝的影响程度,本文在苏锡常地裂缝发育现状的基础上,利用基于确定性系数计算权重法对苏锡常地裂缝发育危险性进行预测分区。模型考虑了基岩埋深、基岩坡度、累计地面沉降量、沉降坡度、第二含水层厚度、第二含水层厚度变化梯度、第二含水层水位降深、第四纪沉积相等8个主要影响因素,分析结果显示苏锡常地区北部地裂缝易发,东南部发生地裂缝的危险性较小。计算结果与苏锡常地裂缝的分布及发育情况基本一致,验证了该方法在地裂缝预测方面的有效性。本研究对苏锡常地区地下水开采及城市建设规划具有一定的指导意义。

       

      Abstract: The cities of Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou(the Su-Xi-Chang Cities) have ground fissures in some regions due to the long-term over exploitation of groundwater. Although groundwater extraction in this area has been prohibited for more than ten years, some ground fissures are still active. The development of ground fissures is affected by many factors and the mechanism is still not clear. In order to find out the influence factors of ground fissures, and then to determine the influence of each factor, the potential risk of ground fissures in the Su-Xi-Chang area is predicted based on multi-factor overlay method. This prediction is on the basis of the current status of ground fissures in the Su-Xi-Chang cities. Eight influencing factors are considered. They are bedrock depth, bedrock slope, cumulative land subsidence, subsidence slope, the second confined aquifer thickness, the second confined aquifer thickness gradient, hydraulic head reduction at the second confined aquifer, and quaternary sedimentary facies. The prediction results show that the ground fissures are prone to occur in the northern part of the Su-Xi-Chang cities, and the potential of ground fissures occurring in the southeast is relatively small. The results are primarily coincident with field investigations on ground fissures at the study area, which verifies the validity of the method. The predicted results of ground fissure risk are helpful for the planning of groundwater exploitation and urban construction.

       

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